Sports

A handy guide to betting the Kentucky Derby

The 140th Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville. Before the starting gates open (and the betting windows close) for the $2 million Run for the Roses — post time is 6:24 p.m.; NBC will televise — here is a guide to the field.

Horses are listed by program number, in post position order (posts 2 through 20).

1. Vicar’s in Trouble (20-1)

Dark Bay or Brown colt, by Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday), out of Vibrant (Vicar)
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
Trainer: Mike Maker

Current form: Impressive gate-to-wire winner of the Louisiana Derby while holding what could be labeled a “questionable” field at bay. Ran a :47.4 half mile and had something left at the wire. Never been off the board through five starts.

Worth a wager? Appropriately named as pressure’s on Rosie to break well from rail. I’m thinking Vicar’s in Trouble.

2. Harry’s Holiday (50-1)

Bay colt, by Harlan’s Holiday (Harlan), out of Daisy Mason (Orientate)
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Trainer: Mike Maker

Current form: Enters the Derby off a career-worst effort when he backpedaled through the field in the Blue Grass. Failed to hold off We Miss Artie two races back in The Grade 3 Spiral. Raced on synthetics last four. One of a handful that has a win at Churchill.

Worth a wager? Has a better chance of finishing last than first. In a word, No.

3. Uncle Sigh (30-1)

Bay colt, by Indian Charlie (In Excess), out of Cradle Song (Pine Bluff)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Gary Contessa

Current form: Played the role of runner-up to Samraat this spring. Took control of the Withers before wilting late and got outkicked in the Gotham. Big disappointment in the Wood Memorial as early speed was nowhere to be found. Gets rider change to Irad Ortiz and will wear blinkers.

Worth a wager? Improvement expected. If he can get good position into the first turn, he may stick around to add a little spice to your superfecta.

4. Danza (8-1)

Chestnut colt, by Street Boss (Street Cry), out of Champagne Royal (French Deputy)
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Current form: Had everything go perfectly in the Arkansas Derby. Sat chilly just behind the leader and Bravo seized control when the rail opened up. Easy score at 41-1 while earning a triple-digit speed fig. Only one other start this year, a meaningless 3rd with optionals.

Worth a wager? Morning line doesn’t jive with light workload. What are the chances of another optimal garden trip? Should end up somewhere in the top 10.

5. California Chrome (5-2)

Chestnut colt, by Lucky Pulpit (Pulpit), out of Love the Chase (Not for Love)
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Art Sherman

Current form: Has everyone California Dreamin’. Deserving Derby favorite won last four races handily including Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. So good, he has not been tested. Got 1 1/8 mile distance with no problem. Espinoza won on War Emblem (2002). Note: California-bred has not won since Decidedly (1962).

Worth a wager? Of course. Colt has done everything asked of him — in convincing fashion. How will he react to competition in the final 100 yards?

6. Samraat (15-1)

Dark Bay or Brown colt, by Noble Causeway (Giant’s Causeway), out of Little Indian Girl (Indian Charlie)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Rick Violette Jr.

Current form: The East Coast-West Coast battle is on. This New York-bred visited winner’s circle first five starts before running second in the Wood Memorial. Violette says he may have run his best race in defeat. Looked to be done but ran gamely thru stretch to steal second money by out-nosing Social Inclusion. Rising star Jose Ortiz retains ride. Drew away by 16 lengths on an off track. Patient, stalking style. Battle tested.

Worth a wager? He’s my winner. Gotta believe when push comes to shove in deep stretch, he’s already been there. Even better if morning line holds firm.

7. We Miss Artie (50-1)

Dark Bay or Brown colt, by Artie Schiller (El Prado), out of Athena’s Gift (Fusaichi Pegasus)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Current form: Stretch runner proved very photogenic when he got his nose up in time to win the Grade 3 Spiral, earning him the right to be here. Only other win of note occurred last year when he won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity. Both Ws posted over synthetic tracks, which usually spells doom.

Worth a wager? Not me. Of four colts entered by Pletcher, he’s the one that should not be here.

8. General a Rod (15-1)

Dark Bay or Brown colt, by Roman Ruler (Fusaichi Pegasus), out of Dynamite Eyes (Dynaformer)
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Mike Maker

Current form: Has not won a graded stake but enters race off a pair of solid runs at Gulfstream. Hooked up with Wildcat Red in the Fountain of Youth and came up short a head. Then ran evenly for third prize in the Florida Derby. Never off the board through five starts but may have issues going this long.

Worth a wager? Likes to stalk pace but this field is loaded with those. May tail off late at this distance and odds are not in your favor. Top 10.

9. Vinceremos (30-1)

Dark Bay or Brown colt, by Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker), out of Kettle’s Sister (More Than Ready)
Jockey: Joe Rocco Jr.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Current form: Had been slowly moving up the Pletcher depth chart. Barely held on for a Grade 3 victory back in February and made a belated move for second in the Tampa Bay Derby. But Blue Grass experience put a halt to momentum as he finished a country mile back over the synthetic surface.

Worth a wager? Stock dropped when he didn’t show up at Keeneland but value’s high. Feels like a mid-pack finish.

10. Wildcat Red (15-1)

Bay colt, by D’Wildcat (Forest Wildcat), out of Racene (Miner’s Mark)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Jose Garoffalo

Current form: Has used his speed to win four of seven and has never been worse than second. Dug down deep to win the Fountain Of Youth while fending off General a Rod. Tested again in the 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby but came up short a neck to Constitution. And he’s not here today. Good post and Saez will have him near the front.

Worth a wager? Yes. Yes. Yes. Colt does nothing but produce and may not fear the added real estate.

12. Dance With Fate (20-1)

Dark Bay or Brown colt, by Two Step Salsa (Petionville), out of Flirting with Fate (Saint Ballado)
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Trainer: Peter Eurton

Current form: Blue Grass winner came from out of the clouds to score thrilling W over less-than-stellar field. Three lifetime wins but none earned over real dirt track. Distance does not appear to be an issue, but can he make up ground at this level?

Worth a wager? Needs it fast up front … and to save some ground early. I’ll look elsewhere.

13. Chitu (20-1)

Chestnut colt, by Henny Hughes (Hennessy), out of Sea Gift (A.P. Indy)
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert

Current form: Lone Baffert starter enters Derby off career best. Seized control after stalking trip for a very impressive win in the Sunland Derby. Applied same strategy two races back and poked nose in front before Candy Boy nailed him at the wire. One of only four coming off triple-digit speed fig. He’s won three of four and is moving in right direction.

Worth a wager? No. He’ll have a lot of company on the front end. May be retreating through stretch.

14. Medal Count (20-1)

Bay colt, by Dynaformer (Roberto), out of Brisquette (Unbridled’s Song)
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Trainer: Dale Romans

Current form: Followed big late run of Dance with Fate to place second in the Blue Grass while getting outkicked. Pulled down a Grade 3 win two races back after standard slow start. Son of super-sire Dynaformer is built to go long.

Worth a wager? Book indicates he may not be ready to handle this level quite yet. Outsider may be hard pressed to win a bronze.

15. Tapiture (8-1)

Tapiture and jockey Ricardo Santana Jr.AP

Chestnut colt, by Tapit (Pulpit), out of Free Spin (Olympio)
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Current form: Kicked off 3-year-old campaign by winning the Grade 3 Southwest decisively at Oaklawn. Asmussen raised the bar in the Grade 2 Rebel and he responded with a gut-busting stretch duel which left him a half-length short to Hoppertunity. He’s not here today. On track until he was well beaten in the Arkansas Derby.

Worth a wager? Yes. He won a Grade 2 at Churchill last year and has represented well against top-notch hopefuls.

16. Intense Holiday (8-1)

Dark Bay or Brown colt, by Harlan’s Holiday (Harlan), out of Intensify (Unbridled’s Song)
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Current form: Late closer picked up steam and unleashed a furious rally to get his nose up in time to win the Grade 2 Risen Star in February. Cruised a little closer to the pace and ran up for second money while no threat to Vicars in Trouble in the Louisiana Derby.

Worth a wager? I know one thing. Never throw out the team of Pletcher/Johnny V. Ready to pounce if it’s fast up front. May be trainer’s best chance.

17. Commanding Curve (50-1)

Bay ridgling, by Master Command (A.P. Indy), out of Mother (Lion Hearted)
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
Trainer: Dallas Stewart

Current form: Mirrored run of Intense Holiday in the Louisiana Derby, but with a sizable reduction in punch. Not much to go on here as he was a well-beaten also ran in the Risen Star and has one victory to his credit which was earned with run-of-the-mill maidens. Rider change to Bridgmohan who was aboard for that W.

Worth a wager? Wouldn’t bet him with my dollar, your dollar or anyone’s dollar. Another with a better chance of finishing last than first.

18. Candy Boy (15-1)

Bay colt, by Candy Ride (Ride the Rails), out of She’s An Eleven (In Excess)
Jockey: Gary Stevens
Trainer: John Sadler

Current form: Ran into the powerful force known as California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby. Ran right beside him for first half-mile before West Coast monster started to pull away. Held well for third, but 8 3/4 lengths is a lot of ground to make up. Won Grade 2 two races back defeating Chitu in the process.

Worth a wager? Using “Chrome” as a measuring stick he may narrow the gap and be a contender late. Puncher’s chance, top 10 more likely.

19. Ride On Curlin (15-1)

Bay colt, by Curlin (Smart Strike), out of Magical Ride (Storm Cat)
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Trainer: William Gowan

Current form: Has won nothing of note but has hit the board last six battling top contenders in graded competition. Third to Tapiture in the Southwest, even closer third to Hoppertunity in the Rebel and distant runner-up to Danza in The Arkansas. Son of Curlin, who could run all day.

Worth a wager? Two lifetime wins and Calvin “Bo-rail” was pilot for both. Got a hunch this colt may enjoy stretching out. Worthy of your attention. Watch the board.

20. Wicked Strong (6-1)

Bay colt, by Hard Spun (Danzig), out of Moyne Abbey (Charismatic)
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Trainer: James A. Jerkens

Current form: Did not figure for Derby before making bold late move in the Wood Memorial passing heavy hitters Samraat and Social Inclusion. True closer may have had the dirty work done for him though. Picked off tired favorites after a quick opening half mile. One-shot wonder or peaking at the right time? Received name two weeks after Boston Marathon bombings.

Worth a wager? Thought here is that he’s getting better. Derby has history of unnecessarily fast fractions up front and he should be able to sneak up late to hit the board.