After an abysmal 2013 season, the Profit returns for another campaign, giving Howie Hoops’ still unnamed alter ego another chance to make a name for himself.
With apologies to Abilene Christian and Georgia State, college football season finally arrives on Thursday, finally in the form we always hoped it would be, with the addition of the new four-team playoff.
There will be minor differences, like top teams being able to bounce back from early-season losses, as well as unranked teams having a greater opportunity to climb from the depths of the disrespected, but little will change from week to week.
The preseason rankings remain asinine, a bizarre exercise which attaches a team’s season-long value to arbitrary assumptions. Last season, the two teams in the national title game weren’t ranked in the top 10 to start the season, while 10 teams in the preseason Top 25 finished the season unranked.
With so much uncertainty entering the season, Florida State provides clarity.
The Seminoles return Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jameis Winston and 12 other starters from the undefeated defending national championship squad, a team which made a mockery of spreads by scoring the most points in college football history and winning games by an average of 39.5 points. Their championship win over Auburn was the only game decided by less than two touchdowns.
Though Oklahoma State is better than the spread suggests, it is too early to start over-thinking. Stand with the champs until they get knocked down. Take the Seminoles (-18 ¹/₂).
Texas A&M (+10 ½) over S. CAROLINA: The loss of Johnny Football does not mean the end of football for the Aggies, just the end of their two-season run of national relevance. Though the Gamecocks could end up being great, several new starters will need time before showing the team’s ceiling.
Mississippi (-10 ½) over Boise State: A cross-country trip is a tough way to start the first season without former coach Chris Peterson, a season which the Broncos begin unranked for the first time in six years. With road losses accounting for every loss last season, Boise needs to prove it can play on green grass before it can be taken seriously again.
Washington State (-8) over Rutgers: The season’s first game should prepare the Scarlet Knights for a season’s worth of beatdowns in the Big Ten.
UCONN (+16 ½) over Byu: There will be no Shabazz/Kemba-like miracles, but a nationally televised game on their first night of the season should get the Huskies hyped enough to stay close, à la last season’s 24-21 near-win over Michigan.
Ucf (-2) over Penn State: Ireland will learn before America that the Knights were more than just Blake Bortles.
Ohio State (-15 ½) over Navy: The bus from Baltimore to Annapolis will begin boarding early. Sure, Braxton Miller’s season-ending injury was brutal, but it wasn’t devastating. Without him, the Buckeyes go from the clear favorite to a co-favorite in the Big Ten.
Ucla (-21) over VIRGINIA: The worst team in the ACC against a national championship contender. Virginia couldn’t have seen this coming when scheduling the game more than five years ago.
West Virginia (+26 ½) over Alabama: The Tide may be loaded at just about every position, but coach Nick Saban needs to trust one of his quarterbacks to play an entire game before they should be trusted with a spread this large.
Rice (+21) over NOTRE DAME: The Irish attack will be much improved, but the team needs time to settle in, especially while short on starters because of academic problems, QB Everett Golson playing his first game after a season off and the defense relying on a slew of inexperienced players.
Arkansas (+20 ¹/₂) over AUBURN: There was no better story in college football last season than the Tigers coming within seconds of a championship, following a last-place finish in the SEC in 2012, but sequels always disappoint.
GEORGIA (-7 ½) over Clemson: The longtime star quarterback of each team — Aaron Murray and Tahj Boyd — is gone, but the Bulldogs bring back Heisman candidate Todd Gurley.
FLORIDA (-36 ½) over Idaho: After a miserable season, the Gators will fly out of the gates with an easy win, facing a team which allowed 47.9 points per game on the road last season.
Wisconsin (+5) over Lsu: The Tigers’ inexperience will play a bigger factor than their talent, as running back Melvin Gordon helps the Badgers make an early playoff statement.
LOUISVILLE (-3 ½) over Miami: Bobby Petrino doesn’t always make the best decisions, but loading the box on ’Canes running back Duke Johnson is simple enough for anyone to understand, especially with true freshman Brad Kaaya starting his first game at quarterback.
BEST BETS: Florida State, Wisconsin, Louisville