Normally, Cory Booker would be feeling pretty confident, given his 20-point lead over GOP challenger Jeffrey Bell.
But a closer look at the latest poll numbers suggests Booker may have a rougher ride to re-election than anyone anticipated.
That’s because the New Jersey senator’s support clocks in at just 43 percent. The same poll, by the Monmouth University-Asbury Park Press, has more than a third of voters saying it’s time for a change, though Booker’s been in office only eight months.
Fully 15 percent — including one in eight Democrats — say they would vote for a third-party candidate. This, even though the same voters generally approve of Booker’s job performance. In other words, his support remains strikingly soft.
Some of this, no doubt, reflects the general defensiveness of Democratic senators up for re-election this year. But some also suggests voters have concluded Booker’s been more hype than substance. Newark, for example, just elected one of his harshest critics to succeed him as mayor.
Granted, challenger Jeff Bell, a Reagan speechwriter-turned-tax-reform-activist, last ran for office in 1982. On top of this, statewide Republican candidates — particularly conservatives — historically have faced an uphill climb in Jersey.
But another conservative, Steve Lonegan, lost to Booker last fall by just 11 percentage points, a much closer margin than people expected. And that was without any help from the Republican National Committee.
If Bell can make his case for the middle class — and get the financial support he needs from the national party — he may make this race competitive yet.