For the third time in four years, the Republican Party finds itself politically positioned to win control of the Senate.
More than eight months before President Obama’s second midterm election, his job approval ratings are stuck in the low 40s as voters continue to frown on his signature domestic initiative, the Affordable Care Act. And the majority of contests likely to determine the outcome of the 2014 campaign for Senate control are being fought in red states.
But as in 2010 and 2012, when the GOP nominated flawed candidates who torpedoed their party’s chance to demote Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), the Democrats are banking on another batch of untested Republicans to help them protect their six-seat advantage.
Republican candidates blew at least a half-dozen winnable Senate races in 2010 and 2012, combined, noted GOP strategist Jim Dornan, because they “had no filter, used their ideology as a political compass and had absolutely no idea why people disagreed with their views. That never turns out well.”
A third of the Senate’s 100 seats are up for election, but only a dozen really hold the key. Most, such as Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia, find the Republicans on offense in states that are held by the Democrats but were won by the Republican presidential nominee just 15 months ago.
The Republicans also appear to be threatening the Democrats in traditionally liberal Michigan, although the Democrats are making a play to flip the usually dependable conservative states of Georgia and Kentucky.
Either of those races could prove decisive: If Republicans win the six contested seats situated in the states they carried in the last presidential election but lose Georgia or Kentucky, the Democrats would maintain control of the Senate by virtue of Vice President Joe Biden’s tie-breaking vote.
If, however, they carry the south, the House and Senate will be a united GOP front to President Obama’s final two years in office.
Current makeup of Senate
53 Democrat
45 Republican
2 Independents (They caucus with the Democrats, giving Democrats a voting majority of 55)
Up for election in 2014:
32 seats
20 Democrat
12 Republican
Democrats have 34 seats with no race, and 10 safe seats, for a total of 44.
Republicans have 31 seats with no race, and 12 safe seats, for a total of 43.
That leaves 13 races to decide the Senate. They are:
Alaska
Democrat Mark Begich beat long-serving Republican Ted Stevens in 2008; he’ll face the winner of a crowded Republican primary field.
Arkansas
Democratic incumbent: Sen. Mark Pryor
Republican challenger: US Rep. Tom Cotton
Latest poll: Cotton 45% – Pryor 40%
Of all threatened Democrats, Pryor is perhaps the most endangered. Arkansas has taken a sharp right turn over the past decade, and Gem State voters strongly disapprove of both Obama and the health-care law. House member Cotton was the consensus Republican choice to challenge Pryor, uniting the Tea Party and the GOP establishment.
Georgia
Open seat
Republican incumbent: Sen. Saxby Chambliss is retiring; Republican nominee to be determined
Democrat challenger: Michelle Nunn
The Republicans still hold the advantage in this southern battleground — both in state and federal races. The president’s approval ratings are less than stellar and ObamaCare is unpopular. But the GOP is embroiled in a potentially divisive primary contest with no clear front-runner. This could be a problem because Nunn is the daughter of a former popular Democratic senator who doesn’t have a voting record and is raising big money while cultivating the image of a pragmatic moderate. Republicans are still expected to win this race, but missteps by the eventual GOP nominee could prove costly.
Iowa
Five-term Democrat Tom Harkin decided not to run. Both parties have primaries.
Kentucky
Republican incumbent:Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
Democratic challenger: Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes
Latest poll: McConnell 43%-Grimes 42%
Recent public polls show this race to be close. McConnell’s job approval ratings are problematic for an incumbent and as the Republican Senate leader, he has taken many high profile votes that are politically toxic. But Grimes faces the challenge of distancing herself from Obama in a midterm election in a state where the president is as unpopular as he is anywhere in the country. McConnell will have to fight, but expect him to come out on top.
Louisiana
Democratic incumbent: Sen. Mary Landrieu
Republican challenger: Primary, with main candidates being Rep. Bill Cassidy, considered the establishment’s choice; and retired Air Force officer Rob Maness, considered the Tea Party choice.
Landrieu has been a perennial Republican target. But even in years where the GOP was successful nationally, such as in 2002, when President George W. Bush was popular, Landrieu survived. But her strong support of Obama’s agenda, including ObamaCare, has Republicans confident that this could be the year they finally topple Landrieu, whose family has deep roots in Louisiana politics. As has been Landrieu’s practice, she is hoping to overcome the odds by focusing attention on issues, particularly energy issues, where she differs with Obama. She was just appointed chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and is expected to use that perch to bolster her re-election.
Michigan
Open seat
Democrat incumbent: Sen. Carl Levin is retiring; US Rep. Gary Peters is the Democratic nominee.
Republican nominee: former secretary of state Terri Lynn Land
Latest poll: Land 37% – Peters 35%
The Wolverine State leans Democratic — Obama easily carried it in 2012 — and the Republicans haven’t won a Senate race there since the 1990s. But GOP Gov. Rick Snyder, who is running for re-election, remains popular and is expected to win a second term. That contest could produce an updraft that boosts Land, who is benefitting from ObamaCare’s unpopularity, her status as a Washington outsider and Peters lack of a statewide profile. In a presidential year, Peters would probably be a shoo-in, but in a midterm year, when western Michigan carries more influence in statewide contests, the congressman’s suburban Detroit base is less helpful than it might be otherwise. Land hails from Grand Rapids, in western Michigan.
Montana
Democratic incumbent: Sen. John Walsh (appointed in February)
Republican challenger: US Rep. Steve Daines
Walsh was appointed by Gov. Steve Bullock (D) to replace Max Baucus, who resigned from the Senate to accept Obama’s appointment to serve as ambassador to China. When Baucus decided to retire rather than seek re-election, this seat became an immediate GOP pickup opportunity. Count the state as another where Obama’s approval ratings are low and his agenda is unpopular. Despite Montana’s conservative leanings, however, the Democratic Party remains strong. Democrats control most of state government and hold both US Senate seats. And although Daines, as Montana’s at-large congressman, represents the entire state, he also is vulnerable to attacks on his voting record.
New Hampshire
Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is running for a second term but hasn’t raised a lot of money. Former Sen. Robert C. Smith hopes to survive the Republican primary and challenge her.
North Carolina
Democrat incumbent: Sen. Kay Hagan
Republican challenger: Primary. State House Speaker Thom Tillis is considered the establishment’s pick; he faces Tea Party activist Greg Brannon and Pastor Mark Harris, whose main platform is social issues.
Hagan was in great shape just last summer. The Republican primary was — and still is — unsettled and voter disappointment with GOP control of the statehouse was having a negative impact on the party’s chances of ousting Hagan. She is well liked by North Carolina’s business community and has cultivated the image of a hard-working pragmatist, despite a reliably liberal voting record. But as voter approval of both Obama and ObamaCare have tanked in the Tar Heel State, so has Hagan’s re-election prospects. This is one of those states the GOP has to win to take the Senate.
South Dakota
Four-term Democrat Sen. Tim Johnson is retiring. There are primaries for both parties; the state is seen as tilting right.
Virginia
Democrat Mark Warner won in 2008 and is running for re-election. The state tilts left, but Republican Ed Gillespie, former RNC chairman, hopes there are cracks in Warner’s popularity.
West Virginia
Five-term Democrat Jay Rockefeller is not seeking re-election. Likely Republican nominee Rep. Shelley Moore Capito will have a leg up against Dem primary winner in this GOP-leaning state.
David M. Drucker is a senior correspondent for the Washington Examiner.