Dear John: I’ve been reading your column for years now, and you’re always on the money when assessing the economy.
I am what you would call a small-business owner, and since 2008, tiny should replace small.
Anyway, all I want to say is that starting in November I could feel things getting really tight. And this year so far has been horrible.
I guess you get plenty of e-mails like this, and it may be part of your own personal survey. Once again, you’re right on the money when it comes to the economy.
I really hope we see signs of things starting to improve as we get into spring. I really do. And if things get better for me, then I will shoot you an e-mail with the good news.
Thanks for your always honest column; I really like the no-nonsense way you explain things. O.U.
Dear O.U.: I hope things get better in the spring, and that there is some pent-up demand for business that was delayed because of the winter weather.
But I hope it is real improvement. I say that because — as I’m sure I will mention in future columns — the statistical models used by the government almost always make spring look better. The employment numbers, in fact, are almost guaranteed to show a statistical improvement because of assumptions the government makes.
But that doesn’t mean the improvements are real. Let’s hope for some really — and real — good news this time around.
Dear John: Where have these trillions of dollars of quantitative easing (QE) money gone?
Twenty-five million dollars in food stamps (snap), now $53 million. Next stop, $90 million.
Right now, I’m thinking of what Capt. Nemo said: “It will all come to pass in God’s good time.” C.P.
Dear C.P.: First, let me say this: Nobody should be happy that QE isn’t working. A failing economy hurts us all. And a broken economy, like the one I think we have, means that our kids and their kids will also be hurt.
So where has the QE money gone?
Well … nowhere, really.
The Fed has printed all that money (and its balance sheet is now $3 trillion) and used it to buy government bonds. So it has really gone from one government pocket to another.
That sounds pretty innocent — except that it isn’t.
Why? Because the Fed has really been rigging the bond market and doing so in a very unorthodox and obvious way.
In another way, you are right: By keeping rates artificially low, the Fed is allowing Washington to borrow money cheaply. And that cheap money keeps our budget deficits and debt down — if you can call an approximately $700 billion annual deficit and $17 trillion in overall debt “down.”
And that gives Washington extra money to spend on social programs.
That’s all OK with me, except that rates won’t stay low forever, even if the Fed wants them to. “All things will come to pass” is one way of putting it. Another way is: The bad stuff will eventually hit the fan if the Fed doesn’t stop what it is doing. And by then the Fed won’t have the ability to shut the fan off.
The Fed obviously hoped for different results. It was hoping that low borrowing costs would cause businesses to borrow and expand.
But after five years, there hasn’t been enough of that. The growth rate of the gross domestic product has been disappointing, and job growth has been lackluster.
There comes a time when someone has to say, “Enough QE.” And we are getting to that time.