June 23 has loomed as D-Day — Decision Day — for Carmelo Anthony for some time. Monday is the deadline for the Knicks’ All-Star to formally announce if he is opting out of his final contract year and taking the free-agent plunge. The decision to opt out is a move anticipated by everyone on the planet, except for a couple of guys living in Iceland.
Then comes speculation and unending questions for Knicks fans. If Anthony leaves, how bad will the Knicks be? How long will it take to recover? Can they call do-over with Denver?
No one can know exactly what will happen, but if history is a guide, don’t look for the Knicks to make a major playoff run anytime soon if Anthony leaves.
In past deals, rarely is it superstar-for-superstar. The trade returns for stars who either are headed for free agency or unhappy in their present setting usually are draft picks, young or expiring contract players and cap space. By far, the best weapon the team losing a star player can arm itself with is patience.
“If you look back through history, there aren’t that many stars who leave a team and that team doesn’t step back,” said Rod Thorn, NBA president basketball operations who as the Nets president and general manager faced the hard choice from both sides — acquiring Vince Carter, who wanted out of Toronto, and dealing Jason Kidd, who wanted out of New Jersey.
“You do what you have to do,” Thorn said. “All these situations are different. You make up your mind what you feel you need to do, and that’s what you do.”
When groveling doesn’t work, it becomes a matter of recouping losses. Then the situation becomes a matter of time.
“If a team wants to get back, I think they can do it in two years,” one Western Conference executive said. “When a move like that happens, the GM often loses his job and a new GM comes in. That new GM wants to build slowly. … He wants to use his draft picks. It’s a matter of GMs wanting to take time and building slow rather than being middle of the pack.”
Recent history shows teams that have come back (Toronto), are coming back (Orlando) or still are struggling (Cleveland) after a gut-punch loss.
And there is Denver, which dealt Anthony but stayed competitive. Then-Nuggets GM Masai Ujiri, now in Toronto, did an in-season, three-team deal and landed young players, draft picks and cap space. Denver, who was 32-25 when they dealt Anthony in February 2011, finished with 50 wins that year and made the playoffs. They also advanced to the playoffs the following two seasons under coach George Karl.
The most glaring example of a team collapsing was Cleveland after losing LeBron James to Miami. The Cavs got a couple of second rounders, Miami’s 2013 first-round pick and a lot of headaches. Suffice it to say, the picks were fairly worthless.
Cleveland, after James, went from a 61-victory powerhouse to a doormat that won 19, 21, 24 and 33 games. The Cavs will start 2014-15 with their third different coach since James left.
Compounding the problem was Cleveland making less than astute draft picks. They got Kyrie Irving No. 1 in 2011 which was fine, but took Tristan Thompson at No. 4, which wasn’t (Toronto took Jonas Valanciunas No. 5).
In 2012, they took Dion Waiters, a nice player, but Andre Drummond and Terrence Ross both went later (so did Damian Lillard, but Cleveland had Irving). Last June, the Cavs took Anthony Bennett No. 1 overall.
Presumably, they will do better with the No. 1 pick in Thursday’s draft.
“Cleveland could have improved with so many draft picks if they took people that were good fits into their system alongside Kyrie,” the Western exec said. “They were top four picks. If they hit on just one and paired him with Kyrie, they would be pretty good.”
“Cleveland arguably should have taken Valanciunas, who is on his way to being an All-Star,” said one longtime team executive. “Sometimes things make sense, sometimes they don’t. From the decision-making viewpoint, everything we do makes sense when you do it, but things can play out differently.”
Valanciunas has helped the Raptors overcome the departure of Chris Bosh. The Raptors got a couple draft picks in their sign-and-trade with Miami. One pick — actually their own, which they reacquired — became Valanciunas.
There were signs for the Raptors that Bosh was leaving. Unlike Denver, which traded Anthony near the deadline to one of his preferred destinations, Toronto found a limited marketplace for Bosh. He was going to be a free agent. He wanted Miami. That can thin the herd. But they got something for him.
“Chris was not a No. 1 guy but was the face of their team. Once he left there, it was a clear sign [for] rebuilding,” an Eastern Conference exec said. “They could have gotten less, but instead they moved forward. Look at where Toronto is today. They have the makings of a pretty good team.”
Last season, the Raptors finished with 48 wins and the Atlantic Division title.
Another team that could be nearing a breakthrough is the Magic. They lived the Dwightmare with Dwight Howard, and after some horribly rough times, seem poised for a very positive forward step.
With Howard flip-flopping, the Magic finally pieced together a four-team trade that required Advanced Calculus professors to figure. Orlando ended up with six players of varying skill, first-round picks in 2014, 2015 and 2017, plus second rounders in 2013 and 2014 and a $17.8 million trade exception. On Thursday, the Magic will pick fourth and 12th, with the Knicks’ pick they got from Denver.
In Howard’s last season in Orlando, the 2011-12 lockout year, the Magic were eight games over .500. In the next two years, they were 42 and 36 games under.
“Orlando is in a great spot,” the Western exec said. “They have tons of cap room, really good young players. They’re going to draft high again this year. They’re in a great position for next year in free agency and have a ton of picks.
“It’s all about choosing the right time to go after free agents. It’s trying to hit on one of your draft picks. Then you’re trying to be relatively good his third year, so going into his fourth year you want to be good and have money — that’s the last year to spend your cap space before you have to pay him entering his fifth year.”
Now the Knicks are at a crossroad that leads in so many different directions. The Nets once were there with Kidd in his 2003 free agency following two Finals trips. The Spurs wanted him badly.
“We made a commitment that we were going to pay whatever it took to keep the guy,” Thorn said. “And it came down to whether he wanted to leave or not. With the tax laws in Texas, there wasn’t a heckuva lot of difference with what the Spurs could pay and what we could pay.
“There was a lot of trepidation [but] he ended up staying.”
The Knicks likely hope for the same ending. Anthony could get five years and $129 million from the Knicks or four years and $96 million elsewhere. Team president Phil Jackson has suggested Anthony opt in, which would delay his free agency for a year. Or he could take less.
“To be honest, they are not an immediate team. They are a down-the-road team,” the longtime exec said. “Anthony is looking at his greatest flexibility. You’ve got a new president who just brought a new coach on board. They can’t do a lot this summer. They are built and designed to do something next year.
“If Melo stays, they’ve got to start at ground zero. If Melo goes, they start below ground zero.”
Gone, missing
When star players leave their teams, it rarely works out of the abandoned squad:
August 2012
Dwight Howard
Went from Orlando to the Lakers in August 2012 as part of four team trade. Orlando received G/F Arron Afflalo, F Al Harrington, F Moe Harkless, C Nikola Vucevic , F Josh McRoberts and G Christian Eyenga, first round picks in 2014, 2015, and 2017 plus 2013 and 2014 second-round picks and a $17.8 million trade exception.
RESULT: The Magic won 37 games in the 66-game lockout year in Howard’s final season. They won 20 the following year.
Chris Paul
Went from New Orleans to the Clippers in December 2011. New Orleans got G Eric Gordon, C Chris Kaman, F Al-Farouq Aminu and a first-round pick.
RESULT: New Orleans, a 46-win team the previous year, were 21-45 in lockout-shortened 2011-12.
Carmelo Anthony
Went from Denver to the Knicks in a three-team trade in February 2011. Denver got F Danilo Gallinari, G Raymond Felton, F Wilson Chandler, C Timofey Mozgov, C Kosta Koufos, a 2014 first-round pick, the right to swap 2016 first rounders, second round picks in 2012 and 2013 and $3 million cash.
RESULT: Denver was 31-25 after Anthony’s last game and went 19-7 the rest of the way. The Nuggets were 38-28 the following year.
Deron Williams
Went from Utah to the Nets in February 2011. Utah got G Devin Harris, F Derrick Favors, two 2013 first-round picks and $3 million cash.
RESULT: The Jazz were 31-26 when they dealt Williams. They finished 8-17 for 39-43 overall.
LeBron James
Went from Cleveland to Miami in a sign-and-trade in July 2010. Cleveland got two first-round picks and two second-round picks.
RESULT: The Cavaliers went from 61 victories in 2009-10 to 19 wins in 2010-11 .
Chris Bosh
Went from Toronto to Miami in July 2010. Toronto got two first-round picks.
RESULT: The Raptors went from 40 wins in 2009-10 to 22 wins in 2010-11.
Amar’e Stoudemire
Went from Phoenix to the Knicks in July 2010. Phoenix got a protected second-round pick, which never was received with its protection, and a trade exception.
RESULT: The Suns won 54 games in their last season with Stoudemire, 40 in their first season without him.
Jason Kidd
Went from the Nets to Dallas in February 2008. The Nets received G Devin Harris, C DeSagana Diop, G/F Trenton Hassell, F Maurice Ager, F Keith Van Horn’s contract, first round picks in 2008 and 2010 (F Ryan Anderson and F Damion James), a $3.3 million trade exception and cash.
RESULT: The Nets were 23-29 after Kidd’s last game. They went 11-19 to finish 34-48 and in the lottery.