We have seen this movie. The Mets had a manager and GM holding on for their jobs. They had played surprisingly well for about half the schedule, but as the trade deadline neared they began trending the wrong way. They were coming off a few horrible years, which disenchanted their fan base and made ownership worry about selling tickets in August and September.
So though neither Art Howe nor Jim Duquette had job security, and though the Mets had lost 13 of 19 to plummet from 43-40 to 49-53 to fall seven games out of first and 7½ out of the wild card, the organization still made two ill-fated deals in which it gave up Ty Wigginton and Jose Bautista (yes, the Jose Bautista who has broken out this year for an MLB-leading 28 homers) for Kris Benson and — more debilitating — Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano.
Of course, the 2004 Mets did not get better. After consecutive last-place finishes, they wound up fourth at 71-91. Howe was fired and Duquette de-emphasized as Omar Minaya became GM, albeit minus a few good chips in Wigginton and Kazmir.
Now it is Minaya and Jerry Manuel with decaying job security. It was the 2010 Mets who were pleasant surprises at 43 wins, standing a season-high 11 games over .500 at 43-32. But now they are trending the wrong way, having last won consecutive games June 22-23 and having lost 17 of 25 after last night’s 8-2 win over the Cardinals.
After a couple of seasons that have disenchanted their fan base, you bet there is worry about Citi Field going empty. Attendance is off 15 percent from last year (only Cleveland and Toronto are down more), and that would get worse with a meaningless August/September.
“They are deathly concerned about where their ticket sales base will go for 2011,” said an AL official who talks regularly to the Mets. “They already took a huge hit from last year to this year. If the place is vacant in September because they are not in it, that is a problem because that is when you send out season ticket renewals and they will lose a lot more of their base. They can’t have the place dark in September and that is why I think they will trade to try and stay in this.”
So are they susceptible now to making Jenrry Mejia the new Kazmir, trading him for a Jake Westbrook? No. Another AL executive who is in contact with the Mets in deadline week said, “They are not going to trade the cream of their system. It will be more secondary and fringe guys. I think they are one of the few teams willing to add some salary. But how much they are willing to spend is based on the perception of the players. If the Wilpons like the guy and think he can make a difference, they will have more tolerance to spend.”
However, should the Mets spend at all? I am sympathetic to the Wilpons wanting to stop the bleeding in their attendance. But that is not going to happen with anything the Mets add before Saturday at 4 p.m. What I hear is the Mets are trying to locate a pitcher (probably a reliever) who is overpriced and not having a particularly strong season, but who their scouts like and pluck him for little to no prospect in return. “I think they are going after lightning in the bottle,” an NL personnel man said.
The Mets should refrain, however, if it costs them a prospect that can help in the future and/or — just as important — cost them dollars for a 2010 pipe dream that could instead go toward the 2011 payroll. Baseball Prospectus had the Mets with a 7.6 percent chance of making the playoffs in 2010. I think their odds are better already for next season.
The way the Mets operate, they want to sell something to a disillusioned fan base. But fake hope — like Victor Zambrano — is the wrong path. The Mets should sell reality that this is not a wasted season if they have worked five homegrown, low-cost players into the regular mix (Angel Pagan, Ike Davis, Josh Thole, Jonathon Niese and Bobby Parnell). They should point out that next season ends commitments to Carlos Beltran, Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez, freeing up $36.5 million.
The Mets should display competence and maturity here, show they have learned from their recent missteps and can be trusted not to repeat Kazmir or Castillo or Perez just to try to get into fans’ pockets in the short term. Will that fill Citi Field? No. But it is the first step to assembling a long-term contender, which is the surest way to fully win the fans back.