TAMPA — Mike Humphreys was a nondescript player on bad Yankees teams of the early 1990s. And then he had a spring training of his dreams. He was Tony Gwynn wrapped in George Brett blessed by Miguel Cabrera.
Everything he hit in March 1993 pretty much fell safely (.404 with 16 RBIs in 47 at-bats). He won something called the James P. Dawson Award, which goes to the most impressive rookie in Yankees camp, and made the Opening Day roster, though every important Yankee decision-maker knew it was a mirage. They knew Humphreys was Quadruple-A fodder. But they felt they had to honor the process, so he made the team, started once in April and seven times in all that season, and never played another major league game.
Every spring training since, I think of Mike Humphreys and — in some way — I bet just about everyone in an image-making or decision-making capacity thinks of their version of him as well. We remind ourselves that most of what will happen in Florida and Arizona is meaningless. We promise not to get fooled again by good or bad performance. After all, at this time last year, I remember Yankees fans pelting me with emails that a March meteor named Ronnier Mustelier had to make the team. This spring, he wasn’t even invited to camp. Believe it or not, in 2007, Kei Igawa won the Dawson Award.
Don’t get me wrong. Important stuff is happening. It is just indistinguishable because the results are skewed by — among other things — minor leaguers playing against major leaguers, the high sky and winds creating Keystone Kop moments on the field, veterans building up arms and withholding their best breaking stuff, and the general deception forged by small sample sizes.
We will only know what actually mattered in retrospect. Hundreds of guys were in the best shape of their lives or were refining a new pitch or were finally at peace driving the ball to the opposite field. In July, we will know for sure the handful for whom that mattered.
Yet every year we become the WWE ref who has to fall for the same trick week after week — get distracted, turn your back, let the chair into the ring. We are here, we are watching the games and, thus, we feel compelled to render judgments — make the same mistake year after year.
Here is the thing, though: Decisions do have to be made and these are the only games in town, the only new information whatsoever. We have reached that point at which starting pitchers are stretching toward what would qualify for a win in an actual game — David Phelps, for example, threw five innings Sunday — and position players are starting to play fuller games and back-to-backs. There is monotony to spring, a sameness of the routine that makes this period now a bit drowsy. However, the speed will pick up in a few days as the whiff of the start line becomes more distinct and battles for roster spots become more defined.
So remembering Mike Humphreys — and the high level of deception in March — here is what I think the Yankees must decide with, yes, an assist from the information accumulated over the next three weeks:
Who is the No. 5 starter?
This is what I mean by over-inflating March (and, yes, I participated in this hype): Michael Pineda threw his first two innings of spring Friday, looked great locating his 91-to-93-mph fastball and brandishing a slider that made Cabrera look foolish, and soon we were imagining what it would mean for the Yankees to have an All-Star-quality starter in the No. 5 slot. It was only two innings.
Nevertheless, he is the favorite because, if right, he has by far the best stuff, plus it would allow the Yanks to put Phelps and Adam Warren in the pen, maybe Vidal Nuño, too.
Who is in that pen?
The Yanks believe Joe Girardi and pitching coach Larry Rothschild do a superb job of deploying their pen to its strengths against the opponent’s weaknesses, and that they can do that with what is present in this camp. The nucleus is expected to be David Robertson set up by Shawn Kelley and lefty Matt Thornton. Again, what do we make, in March, of Dellin Betances’ 6 1/3 shutout innings and southpaw Fred Lewis throwing 95 mph at the knees?
Outside executives certainly think the Yankees need to find a surer eighth-inning piece who can close if Robertson stumbles.
Who is the backup catcher?
So far, so great for Brian McCann on and off the field. He is what the Yanks dreamed he would be. His most likely backup is Francisco Cervelli because he has the most experience and is out of minor league options. He also is a live body for a team that can use such things.
But if the Yankees are to find that eighth-inning guy or a backup infielder to give greater security at third for Kelly Johnson and second for Brian Roberts — heck, maybe, also at first and short for the older, returning-from-injury Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter — they might have to use a catcher and a young arm. The Yanks think very highly of J.R. Murphy, who will catch at Triple-A (with Austin Romine likely his partner), and Gary Sanchez, who will be at Double-A, though scouts are dubious about Sanchez’s defensive skills.
Can Ichiro Suzuki be traded?
In the best of all worlds, Suzuki is flipped for someone such as Arizona’s J.J. Putz in a trade of players with similar contracts who might be superfluous where they are. Detroit lost lefty-swinging Andy Dirks for a few months, and he was going to platoon with Rajai Davis in left. The Phillies are believed to be interested. Milwaukee is desperate for some lefty hitters.
Suzuki’s Yankees job would mainly be to run or hit late and then, perhaps, play defense in place of whoever starts in right, Carlos Beltran or Alfonso Soriano.