Remember the popular Cold War-era TV sitcom “Get Smart” and its cast of lovable, hapless spies? Well, negotiations over Iran’s nukes, which resumed this week in Vienna, are starting to resemble one of the classic shticks from that series. Only there’s nothing funny about it.
In the show, Maxwell Smart (played by Don Adams) would invariably get himself into a jam with the bad guys. And, invariably, he’d resort to scare tactics against them — with less-than-total success.
The dialogue would go something like this:
Smart: At this very moment, seven Coast Guard cutters are converging on us.
Bad Guy: I find that hard to believe.
Smart: Hmm. Would you believe … six cutters?
Bad Guy: I don’t think so.
Smart: How about two cops in a rowboat?
As alarming as it sounds, the talks between Iran and the Big Powers — led by President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry — are following a similar pattern. It goes something like this:
Big Powers: Close the heavy-water plant you’ve been working on in Arak; that facility can be used to help build a plutonium bomb.
Iran: We don’t think so.
Big Powers: Hmm. How about turning it into a light-water facility?
Upshot: In Vienna, they’re working on a plan to redesign — but decidedly not close — the Arak facility. And it would remain a heavy-water plant.
That’s not the only example. Consider:
- Six UN Security Council resolutions, approved over a decade by the Big Powers, require Iran to completely end all its uranium-enrichment activity. Instead, the Vienna negotiators are now devising a formula that would merely reduce Iran’s required enrichment level and limit its production to a smaller number of centrifuges.
- The powers have demanded aggressive inspections of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran agreed to let inspectors look at some of its facilities — but none of its military camps, like the one in Parchin. Inspectors believe that Iran is researching a detonator there that would turn the nuclear fuel they’re amassing into nuclear bombs.
They’re also developing ballistic missiles at Parchin, which are practically useless militarily — unless carrying nukes or other WMDs. (Iran claims it isn’t building any such arms.)
“They expect us to limit our missile program while they constantly threaten Iran with military action,” Ali Khamenei, Tehran’s spiritual leader, said over the weekend.
“This is a stupid, idiotic expectation,” he added, instructing the hardline Revolutionary Guards to “mass-produce” ballistic missiles instead. After all, he said, “this is a main duty of all military officials.”
In the genteel Vienna halls, negotiators are refusing to hear such talk, dismissing it as political bluster meant to appease Tehran’s hardliners. Instead, the Big Powers continue to bargain with Iran’s “moderates.”
Never mind that Khamenei has the final say over all nuclear issues.
Never mind that the “moderates” themselves aren’t too eager to bend much either.
Iran will not renege on pursuing nuclear technology, President Hassan Rouhani said over the weekend. It won’t accept “nuclear apartheid.”
Rouhani, you’ll recall, is the “moderate” Iranian leader whose election a year ago raised hopes that the West might finally reach a deal to stop Iran’s nukes.
Alas, the Vienna deal-seekers only hear Rouhani’s promise to open Iran to more inspections (though even that vow excludes Parchin, as well as more intrusive inspections). They remain deaf to clear threats from Tehran, while they home in on any sign, however faint, of moderation.
Last week, National Security Adviser Susan Rice and America’s chief negotiator in Vienna, Wendy Sherman, were in Israel. This week, it’s Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel. All of them are attempting to convince the Netanyahu government that the Vienna negotiations will stop Iran from getting the bomb.
Netanyahu: I don’t believe it.
Rice: Hmm. Would you believe … they’ll stop Iran from getting a bomb for several years and enable us to tell when they obtain it?
Netanyahu: I don’t think so.
Rice: How about … they get a bomb 12 months from now, but it would be small?
Actually, that last line is not far from the truth: Keeping Iran from getting a bomb for a mere 12 months is essentially the most negotiators now hope to achieve, as they talk up a comprehensive agreement with Iran.
Oh, and they expect to sign an agreement with Iran by July.
OK, would you believe … January?