The Grammys? Please. The American Music Awards? Snooze. When it comes to awards shows, the only one that doesn’t feel like an intravenous dose of Ambien is the MTV Video Music Awards. It’s the one night of the year when even the most casual pop fans are glued to the TV, waiting for something insane to happen. And it almost always does — by design or by default.
Take last year’s ceremony, held at Barclays Center in Brooklyn: Lady Gaga’s comeback was hotly anticipated, and Justin Timberlake’s 10-minute Video Vanguard award performance was the most technically stunning. But it turned out to be Miley Cyrus’ twerking spectacle that set tongues wagging and defined the pop-culture tone for the year.
“There was gold dust in last year’s show,” says Garrett English, senior vice president of specials and live event production at MTV. “There was a whole bunch of crazy in Miley’s performance — I didn’t think the twerking aspect would be seized on, but people couldn’t get enough of it. It still gets talked about today.”
This year’s ceremony will be held on Sunday at the Forum in Los Angeles (8 p.m. EST), and it has an awful lot to live up to. So who will seize the moment and send the blogosphere into an outraged spin? Here are our candidates and how high they’re likely to register on the shock-o-meter.
Nicki Minaj
It’s safe to presume that the Queens rapper will turn in an eye-popping show Sunday. Minaj’s new single, “Anaconda,” is a big-booty anthem: The single’s cover is essentially a picture of her butt cheeks hanging out, and the video features her lap dancing for Drake. “The booty will play a big part this year — no pun intended,” hints Amy Doyle, executive vice president of music and talent at MTV. “We also had a request for a live animal.” Doyle refuses to name names (or even species), but given that Minaj is touting a track called “Anaconda,” don’t bet against a reptilian cameo. Either way, it’s likely we’ll be talking about her all next week.
Shock-o-meter rating: 9
Taylor Swift
T-Swizzle unveiled her new single, “Shake It Off,” this week, and catchy though it is, the song doesn’t take too many risks. Swift has always been family-friendly with her performances, too; the 24-year-old famously looked horrified as Miley-gate unfolded at the 2013 VMAs, so it’s unlikely she’ll bring out Robin Thicke to do his pervy “Beetlejuice” act on her. But Rick Thomas, program director at New York’s 92.3 Amp Radio, who’s heard several tracks from her upcoming album, “1989,” and describes them as “drastically different,” feels that Swift might have a different kind of shock in store for us. “She wrote ‘Shake It Off’ as a response to critics and gossips. She’s starting to show us that she’s not just a sensitive girl but a tough, grown-up woman.”
Shock-o-meter rating: 4
Beyoncé
The rumors about Bey and Jay Z’s failing marriage have circled their “On the Run” tour all summer and have only intensified in the run-up to the VMAs. Considering she announced her pregnancy at the ceremony in 2011, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that she could announce her divorce at Sunday’s ceremony, which will see her picking up the Video Vanguard award. But Amp Radio’s Rick Thomas isn’t so sure. “Pregnancy is joy, but divorce hurts,” he says. “Admitting that your marriage failed is a different world, and I’m not sure she’ll want to go there, but she’s the kind of person who’ll address it by changing a lyric.” If Bey decides not to shock, she’ll certainly inspire awe. “Her performance is very ambitious — I don’t think anyone’s tried this before,” teases MTV exec Amy Doyle. “We’re expecting this to go down in VMAs history.”
Shock-o-meter rating: 8
Iggy Azalea
The breakout Aussie star is scheduled to perform “Black Widow” with Rita Ora, and it should cap a huge summer for the rapper. “She’s the hottest commodity in pop right now,” says Thomas, but there will be just as much focus on her interaction with Minaj as her performance. Back in 2010 when Azalea was a nobody, she scoffed at the suggestion that Minaj had performed live at the BET Awards. Fast-forward to this summer, and Minaj has been tweeting mini-sermons about race and privilege, which many fans have interpreted as a criticism of Azalea’s co-opting of Southern hip-hop. Come Sunday, the temperature may rise in this simmering feud.
Shock-o-meter rating: 7
Ariana Grande
The Florida pop princess will open the show with Minaj and Jessie J as they sing their infectious new track “Bang Bang.” “Girl power will definitely feature prominently in this year’s show,” says Doyle, but compared to the sass displayed by her collaborators, Grande might come up a little short. Her attempts to outgrow the girl-next-door image have proven unconvincing, so while she’s likely to blow the roof off with her pipes, her personality might leave less of an impact. “This will be a chance for her to show she has the sizzle to match her musical talent,” says Doyle. But with so much charisma around her, she’ll have to put in overtime to get noticed.
Shock-o-meter rating: 5
5 Seconds of Summer
The Australian group has been opening for One Direction and pegged as the next big boy band as a result. But the quartet is desperate to prove itself as a group with teeth, and the VMAs are a perfect chance for them to show off their ’90s punk-rock roots. Don’t be surprised to see them team up with blink-182 or Green Day and rock the faces off the unsuspecting teenage girls packed inside LA’s Forum.
Shock-o-meter rating: 3