Sports

Win, lose or draw: We break down US path to World Cup round 2

It’s come to this: the final day of the first round of what has been a truly scintillating World Cup, and the United States is on the brink of qualification for the knockout rounds, a stage they have reached just four times before.

Of course, the US already would be there if it weren’t for Portugal’s last-gasp goal to tie Sunday’s match in Manaus. Still, the Americans are in decent shape heading into the final game of the group stage: Thursday at noon vs. high-powered Germany.

Here’s how Clint Dempsey & Co. can book their spot in the knockout stage, with a handy chart and a primer on the other Group G contestants:

United States, 4 points

  • The US needs one point to advance to the next round — a win is great, a draw would suffice. But if the Americans lose to Germany, things get a little murky. Even with a loss, they surely advance if Ghana-Portugal ends in a draw.
  • If one of those teams wins, it comes down to tiebreakers (both teams will have 4 points). The first tiebreaker is goal differential, and right now the US holds the edge in that category: US (+1), Ghana (-1), Portugal (-4). A lopsided Ghana victory likely spells elimination for Team USA.
  • If the US ends tied with another team in goal differential — say they lose by one and Ghana wins by a single goal, or they lose by two and Portugal wins by three — the next tiebreaker is goals scored, so US fans perhaps should be rooting for a high-scoring affair.
  • If there is a tie in that category as well, the next tiebreaker is head-to-head, where the US holds the edge on Ghana from their opening-match victory. Having tied Portugal, the next step in that tiebreaker is “drawing of lots,” essentially a coin flip.

Chart courtesy of Kevin Butler

Germany, 4 points: Germany is in the best situation going into the final day, needing a single point to advance. Because of their large goal differential (+4), they’re a near-lock to survive even with a loss. Ghana (-1) would need a five-goal swing, while Portugal would need an even more improbable eight-goal turnaround to unseat Germany.

Ghana, 1 point: Ghana — plagued by infighting and player exits — must beat Portugal and hope for a winner in the US-Germany match to have a chance. The Black Stars will be rooting for Germany: A win combined with a US loss of at least two would result in qualification, as would a one-goal US loss combined with a Ghana win by at least a two-goal margin. With matching one-goal margins, Ghana can move on by outscoring the US by two (for example, if the US loses 1-0, Ghana would advance if they won 2-1; if it’s a 3-2 loss, they’d need a 4-3 victory, etc.) to claim the goals-scored tiebreaker.

Portugal, 1 point: Even with their thrilling last-second draw with the US on Sunday, it would take something of a miracle for Portugal to advance. Because of their 4-0 loss to Germany in the group opener, they need an eight-goal swing to overcome the Germans if the US wins. US and Portugal are level based on the head-to-head tiebreaker, but the Americans’ goal differential is much stronger (+1 to -4). Therefore, Portugal needs a five-goal swing from a US loss to make it to the next round. If the two teams end up even on goal difference and goals scored (for instance, if the US lose 3-0 and Portugal win 2-0), the two teams would draw lots to see who advances.