SEAHAWKS (-8) over Saints; under 46 ½: Respect Sean Payton’s Saints resurrection — including fact they have shown up big-time for every road date in which they weren’t favored — except for that previous trip to Seattle, where they got clubbed early, and couldn’t recover. Like most prideful pros, they tend to respond to open disrespect.
But can’t get away from one nagging reality: weather’s projected to be Seattle-esque with sustained winds in and tangible rain. Add copious crowd noise from the 12th Man. Eight’s plenty of points to hand Saints talent core, but Seahawks’ secondary — and the weather — will shrink Drew Brees’ world.
Friday’s Wall Street Journal went public with what many keen observers have muttered, for more than a year: the talented Seahawks secondary gets away with blue murder, and zebras don’t call them on clear-cut infractions, nearly-enough.
Rules are rules – unless they’re grossly under-enforced. And, oh — Percy Harvin’s ready to go for Pete Carroll!
Seahawks 27, Saints 13.
PATRIOTS (-7 ½) over Colts; under 52: Ever-willing to trade points for time under the right circumstances, and an undying proponent of “You play to win the game.”
Bill Belichick has gone 6-11 against the spread as playoff chalk over the past decade, and his favorite covers since Spygate came against Tim Tebow (two seasons back), and versus last year’s disintegrating Texans.
You have been warned. Would much rather lay -4 in the first half than risk the whole game, given Andrew Luck’s tendencies (Indianapolis has averaged a fraction over one first-half touchdown, per MONTH, since early October).
But we’re well-aware that after Buffalo’s spectacular rally to beat the Oilers in the 1992 playoffs, Bills visited the Steelers six days later and stuffed them by three touchdowns. Tom Brady’s coming into this fresh, and after last week’s fireworks display against crippled Chiefs, what will Luck manage for an encore?
Patriots 27, Colts 17.
WILDCARD WEEKEND: 1-3; OVER/UNDERS, 1-3