Chaos has reigned through the first week of the NBA playoffs.
This isn’t how it’s supposed to work in the NBA, where more than any other sport the best teams find their way through to the end. With four seven-game series and with the best player on the floor usually determining who wins, there aren’t a lot of surprises.
Yet, through six days of the postseason, things have been turned upside down. Four higher seeded teams are on the ropes, trailing in their first-round series.
Here’s a look at each of the disappointments, and what’s gone wrong so far:
Indiana
When the Pacers beat the Thunder and locked up the top seed in the East after their swoon over the final six weeks, it appeared maybe – just maybe – Indiana had managed to right the ship in time to salvage its season. But then the series began, the Hawks won two of three games comfortably, and suddenly the Pacers are back on the brink again. Jeff Teague carved them up for 22 points and 10 assists to lead Atlanta to a 98-85 win in Game 3.
Why? You don’t have to look much further than the terrible play of Roy Hibbert. The 7-foot-2 behemoth couldn’t be playing much smaller these days, shooting a paltry 28 percent while averaging 6.0 points and 4.7 rebounds per game without recording a single block through three games.
Hibbert’s confidence has totally eroded, which is easy to see when he’s being guarded by 6-foot-8 Paul Millsap and not even attempting to go to the block and take advantage of the six-inch advantage. He’s settling for jumpers or simply dropping easy passes. When he muffed one in Game 3, television cameras jumped to Larry Bird burying his face in his hands. George Hill hasn’t been much better, going 0-for-7 from 3-point range and getting destroyed by Teague, who has been the best player in the series.
In the course of six weeks, the Pacers have gone from legitimate title contender to likely going out in the first round to a Hawks team that didn’t win half its games and is missing its best player (Al Horford). If they don’t turn things around quickly, expect big changes this summer, including firing coach Frank Vogel and exploring moving Hibbert.
Oklahoma City
Yes, the Thunder are playing in the Western Conference and, yes, the Grizzlies are a terrific team that would not have been as low as seventh in the West had Marc Gasol not missed more than 20 games due to injury.
But the Thunder were widely expected to beat the Grizzlies — though not everywhere — and many expected them to come out of the West and even dethrone the Heat as NBA champions.
All of those hopes, however, are unquestionably on the rocks after the Thunder dropped two straight thrilling overtime games — both of which only got that far due to ridiculous comebacks that included insane 4-point plays, one by Kevin Durant in Game 2 and then Russell Westbrook in Game 3. They have been outplayed since rushing out to a big lead in the first half of Game 1, a lead they nearly let slip away.
Durant and Westbrook haven’t been as great as they normally are, shooting 43.8 and 38.4 percent, respectively, while averaging 33 and 27 points. In short, the Thunder aren’t losing because Memphis is shutting down their stars.
So why? Because their bench is giving them virtually nothing. Reggie Jackson, who deservedly earned a lot of votes for Sixth Man of the Year, is averaging five points and shooting a dismal 15.8 percent from the field. Caron Butler is shooting the same percentage as he is playing minutes (25), while Nick Collison and Derek Fisher are both giving them nothing.
Then there’s the move that still hangs over this franchise nearly two years later — trading away James Harden on the eve of the 2012-13 season. The Thunder will get the 21st pick from the Mavericks in this year’s draft, the final piece of that trade to be conveyed, but Kevin Martin already has moved on to Minnesota and the two young players the Thunder acquired as part of the deal, Steven Adams and Jeremy Lamb, were both DNP-CDs in Game 3.
The Thunder have time to turn things around. Unlike the Pacers, you could easily see them finding a way to pull out this series and continue forward because of the will of Durant and Westbrook. But the Grizzlies aren’t going away, and it won’t be a shock if the Thunder lose twice more and are going home for the summer.
Houston
The Rockets dropped both of their home games to the Trail Blazers to begin their series, leaving them in a desperate situation for Friday’s Game 3 in Portland.
Both games were wildly entertaining affairs, as LaMarcus Aldridge turned Toyota Center into a forum for his own personal version of “NBA Jam.” But while Aldridge has been spectacular and Portland has more than deserved its pair of victories, the biggest reason this series is 2-0 is because of Harden’s play.
Harden is averaging 22.5 points, needing 23.5 shots to get them while shooting an abysmal 29.8 percent from the field and 26.3 percent from 3-point range.
That, combined with Harden’s always awful defense, simply isn’t going to cut it against a Portland team that will take advantage of inattention defensively because of its terrific ball movement. When Rockets general manager Daryl Morey signed Dwight Howard as a free agent last summer, the plan wasn’t to lose in the first round – it was to make a run deep into the postseason.
Howard has been terrific, averaging 29.5 points and 14.5 rebounds per game. But unless Harden and Chandler Parsons (shooting 21.4 percent from 3) get it going, it’s hard to see a way for the Rockets to win this series.
Chicago
This result — the battle-tested Bulls losing their first two games at home to the young, upstart Wizards — might be the biggest surprise of all.
But let’s use hindsight as our guide: The Wizards did win two of their three matchups against the Bulls this season – including both games when Nene was healthy – and went 30-23 overall when Nene was in the lineup.
Now, counting on the health of Nene – who has missed significant time with injury for three seasons in a row – never has been a sound strategy, and he’s famous for not getting back onto the court until he’s just right. But when he does play, he makes a huge difference, and his size and scoring ability inside have given the Bulls huge problems. Then, when you factor in Washington’s dynamic young backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal, suddenly the Wizards have all the ingredients to give the Bulls fits.
But here’s the problem with the Bulls: They simply can’t score. Tom Thibodeau is an incredible coach, and Joakim Noah has been spectacular, a deserving top-five MVP finisher. But even when the Bulls had Derrick Rose and Luol Deng, they had problems scoring. Now they have D.J. Augustin – D.J. Augustin! – leading them in postseason scoring heading into Game 3 Friday. Can you really win a series that way?