When someone dies, everything doesn’t just change. Every way we looked at everything changes. The good is magnified and the bad is rationalized, if not all reduced to footnotes.
Historical revisionism is similar at Oregon, where romanticism for its otherwordly offense is revived after every season, despite its near-annual failings in the season’s biggest games.
An undefeated 2010 team, averaging 49.3 points, was held to 19 in the national championship game. An undefeated 2012 team, averaging 54.8 points, was limited to 14 against Stanford, with it playing out again one year later, when the undefeated Ducks, averaging 55.6 points, put up 20 against the Cardinal.
Still, each season, the Ducks are resealed in glittery packaging, promising to be the best and most exciting toy a fan could wish for, their fast-moving offense casting a spell on a country that just can’t get enough points, wowing us with things that feel brand new, but are seen from the yellow and green every year.
Just when it seems as if there’s no way to slow this train, a brick wall emerges from the tracks, usually in the form of a physical, disciplined defense able to take down an Oregon team with no proper preparation, having spent its season padding stats against Pac-12 teams who look at defense as unnecessary extra-credit projects.
The reminder of what we’re reminded of every season comes early this year, against Michigan State, in what will be the biggest non-conference game of the season. With the 13-person playoff committee seeing few cross-conference games between elite teams, the result of this game could impact the perception of each conference’s value, and thus, the standing of several teams in the playoff race.
In what retroactively could become a quarterfinal game, home field means much for Oregon (34-2 since 2009), maybe enough to swing the game, but the Spartans defense is one of the best in the country, a unit so balanced it is incapable of getting run off the field. The spread is only so high because anything in single-digits would cause a tidal wave of action to back Oregon and the offense everyone always believes is unstoppable. Michigan State (+12) is money.
Arizona (-7) over UTSA: Larry Coker is alive and well. In his fifth season with the Roadrunners, the former Miami coach has the program in contention to win Conference USA, but the overmatched underdog is not ready to slow down Arizona’s explosive offense.
BOSTON COLLEGE (+4) over Pittsburgh: The Eagles running game didn’t leave with Andre Williams, producing 338 yards on the ground in the season-opening win over UMass.
PENN ST (-14) over Akron: The line opened too high, but still, it has fallen five points at the time of this writing. No analysis needed.
TULSA (+24¹/₂) over Oklahoma: Part II of the Sooners leaving the back door wide open.
Kansas St. (-12) over IOWA ST: Cyclones fans, stay home and watch Field of Dreams. At least that’s something the state always can be proud of.
Navy (-3) over TEMPLE: Navy deserves a little more credit for making Ohio State sweat last week and succeeding against its elite defensive line. Running the triple-option against the Owls will be a bit easier.
STANFORD (-3) over Usc: After one week, USC looks like Oregon and Stanford looks like Michigan State. See above, then give Stanford home field.
Vanderbilt (+20) over Mississippi: Don’t overreact. The Commodores aren’t as terrible as last week’s 30-point loss, and the Rebels offense isn’t quite what their 22-point win over Boise State suggests.
AUBURN (-31) over San Jose St.: This might be a reversal from last week, in which Nick Marshall only plays the first half, then sits the second with the Tigers piling it on.
E. Carolina (+16¹/₂) over S. CAROLINA: Why is everyone gobbling up the flawed logic — helping the line move more than two points — that the Gamecocks can’t possibly have another down week? Opening night was a nationally televised conference game at home. Why would they be more ready now? Why should the defense be much better against an unheralded and exciting Pirates’ offense? Oh, and South Carolina running back Mike Davis likely will be out.
Michigan (+4) over NOTRE DAME: It’s hard to see a situation in which the final game of this rivalry isn’t decided in the final minutes.
Byu (+1) over TEXAS: Taking a team with a quarterback making his first-ever start — Texas’ Tyrone Swoopes — is as appealing as a Siberian timeshare.
Virginia Tech (+11) over OHIO ST.: J.T. Barrett has one game of experience, but none against a defense as good as the Hokies’, whose offense is finally balanced enough to take on some of the pressure.
Memphis (+24) over UCLA: The Bruins are the Death Star — powerful and scary, but with one glaring hole (the offensive line) that eventually will destroy them. The Tigers defensive front will make Brett Hundley’s day much harder than it should be.
Best bets: Michigan St., Michigan, Virginia Tech
Record: 7-7; Best Bets: 2-1