Opinion

Will labor revolt?

Sen. Max Baucus’s health- care bill poses a nasty ques tion for America’s labor unions: Who do they throw under the bus — their members, or President Obama and their other pals in Washington?

The top problem is the “Cadillac tax” — Baucus’ 40 percent tax on high-end insurance policies. As J. Justin Wilson of the Center for Union Facts notes, the tax would slam vast numbers of unionized workers, particularly those in “old-line,” AFL-CIO-type unions — machinists, mechanics, electricians, etc. How can these unions support the Baucus plan?

The tax hits especially hard at unionized contract employees — construction workers, musicians, etc. — who change employers often, and so often buy insurance through their union. The “Cadillac” tax falls first on the insurance providers — so these “self-insured” unions would actually take the hit.

Small wonder, then, that Big Labor is starting to get restless.

Over the weekend, Health Care for America Now! — a cohort of unions including the AFL-CIO, the American Federation of Teachers, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, the United Auto Workers and Service Employees International Union, joined by leftist groups like ACORN — began running ads demanding health care “with a public option.” Bloomberg News reported last week that the Teamsters, the UAW and others will publicly oppose “reform” if it turns out to mean the Baucus bill.

SEIU spokeswoman Lori Lodes says the union is in wait-and-see mode — but expects the final bill to include a public option and not to tax workers’ health-care plans.

Of course, the unions hadn’t thought it would come to this. For them, ObamaCare — especially the “public option” — was a win-win.

For one of Big Labor’s biggest players — the SEIU, whose members are mostly health-care workers — it was a dream come true. A vast influx of government money — and with it, government influence — to private hospitals would create jobs for many SEIU locals and give a major leg up in organizing many “shops” that are now non-union.

Given their big sway over politicians, more government control over the health-care sector would translate almost directly into more union control.

Just getting the phrase “public option” into law would give unions like SEIU a vital toehold. Next would come provisions requiring providers that get federal funds (which would be all of them) to commit to “union neutrality” — stripping away private hospitals’ ability to resist organizing drives.

All of which adds to union power. The Heritage Foundation’s James Sherk looked at the effect simply of organizing US nurses at a rate comparable to Canada (which has government-run health care): Two million new members means $1.8 billion more a year in dues. Ka-ching!

Older industrial unions had their own stake. Consider the UAW, which has negotiated exorbitant benefits at Ford, GM and Chrysler. Problem is, paying for the benefits is killing Detroit — and therefore the autoworkers’ jobs. But if every worker in America is guaranteed the same standard of health-care coverage — financed by taxpayers — Toyota’s US plants lose much of their advantage, and the UAW doesn’t have to worry about collecting blood from a stone.

But the “public option” is wildly expensive and unpopular with doctors and the general public. So the Baucus bill — which for now seems like the White House’s favorite version of reform — ditches it.

Why, then, aren’t the unions screaming in opposition to Baucus’ “compromise”? There’s not even a giant, inflatable “Scabby the Rat” in front of the senator’s office . . .

It’s because the unions don’t want to double-cross their friends on Capitol Hill. If Big Labor pushes too hard for a public option, it might get the blame for killing health-care reform with a “poison pill.” And if they zap the Cadillac tax, they’ll rip out an estimated $201 billion in revenue — leaving “reform” unquestionably a budget-buster.

The unions can’t afford to be seen as killing ObamaCare. They need to be team players so their Democratic allies will still push for other union priorities like the Employee Free Choice Act (a k a card-check).

Plus, playing ball with the Democrats lets unions get other goodies into “reform” — such as the provision in the House bill that offers a taxpayer bailout of mismanaged union pension funds that took a beating in the recent stock-market downturn. There’s even talk of a special union exemption from ObamaCare’s taxes.

If Baucus’ committee moves his bill today, Big Labor will find itself between a rock and a hard place: Do the union bosses stand by their buddies in Washington, or with their own rank-and-file?

Workers beware.

clyne.meghan@gmail.com