IN CASE you took the cave dwelling too far, then I will make you the last to know Roy Halladay is available.
We have seen this level of player available at midseason before and his addition make a difference in a team reaching the postseason (David Cone, Randy Johnson, CC Sabathia). And we also have seen teams trading this kind of veteran stud make their Herschel Walker trade (the Rangers changed the trajectory of their franchise by receiving four premium youngsters for Mark Teixeira).
There are issues unique to deals this size. So Hardball contacted five GMs who have done it and asked their opinions. What follows are the 10 Commandments of the Mega Trade:
1. YOU SHOULD FEEL PAIN
Remember how agonizing this is for Toronto. Halladay is the best pitcher in franchise history (sorry Dave Stieb fans). He is homegrown, performing at an elite level, and has a stellar reputation as a teammate and for preparation. Dealing him would be excruciating. So you must meet the Blue Jays’ pain halfway.
You don’t get Halladay for John Maine and Fernando Tatis. It has to hurt your organization to even discuss the prospects that must be included. If it is Philadelphia, then Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor or Kyle Drabek must front this deal. If it is Texas, then Justin Smoak, Neftali Feliz or Derek Holland is going to have to go. The Cardinals would have to start with Colby Rasmus, Brett Wallace or both. No pain, no gaining Halladay.
2. GARBAGE PLUS GARBAGE EQUALS MORE GARBAGE
Don’t offer four Grade-C prospects and when the other team shuns it, add a fifth Grade-C prospect. “I hate that,” one GM said. “It is insulting. I know the difference between what is good and [bleep] about your system, please stop offering me more [bleep].”
3. TIMING MATTERS
You might want to haggle, but if you know in your heart that you must have the star player, then speed is a factor. The Brewers obtained Sabathia last year on July 7. Sabathia started five times before July 31, going 4-0 with a 1.82 ERA. The Brewers won the wild card by one game, their first playoff berth since 1982. Would they have made it if they waited until the deadline? A team that acts now can have Halladay for 2-3 starts before the deadline.
4. TIMING MATTERS II
Toronto has said it can trade Halladay now, in the offseason, at the 2010 July deadline or not at all. But there is risk in the Blue Jays waiting, too.
The Rangers, for example, traded Teixeira in 2007 for many of the same reasons Toronto is contemplating moving Halladay now: He was 11⁄2 years from free agency and Texas was a non-contender that was not going to re-sign the first baseman long-term. But one reason the Rangers decided to deal Teixeira during the season was anticipation that Florida’s Miguel Cabrera and Minnesota’s Johan Santana were going to be on the trade market that offseason (both indeed were traded). That potentially would distract the process with Teixeira and/or limit the suitors’ return. Instead, Teixeira was the lone big fish during the season and Texas was able to get bidding among 5-6 undistracted suitors.
Conversely, the Padres tried to move Jake Peavy during last offseason and rather than take a very good, but not great trade from Atlanta, San Diego held its ace. Then Peavy rejected a trade to the White Sox during this season before suffering a significant ankle injury. Thus, the Padres might have missed their best window to rid themselves of Peavy’s big contract and get a strong return.
If healthy, Halladay is attractive any time. But right now he is the lone big name. What happens in the offseason, for example, if Seattle determines it will be unable to sign Felix Hernandez before 2011 free agency and decides to market him this winter?
5. DON’T LIMIT YOUR OPTIONS
Many clubs refuse to trade in the same division or league. “The goal is to maximize the value of the player and it is hard to do that if you eliminate 3-4 teams from your division,” said A’s GM Billy Beane, who has experience making mega-deals in moving Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Dan Haren. “You are taking people and talent out of the equation.”
The Twins, for example, strongly preferred trading Johan Santana out of the AL and required a greater return from the Yankees or Red Sox than the Mets. That is why they didn’t get, say, Jon Lester rather than the mediocre crop the Mets gave up.
Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi told me there is a strong possibility that the Yankees or Red Sox could sign Halladay as a free agent in 11⁄2 years anyway so why exclude them now? However, Yankee officials tell me Ricciardi has indicated he does not want to trade the ace in the division.
6. DON’T MAKE “NEED”
THE PRIORITY
Sure, your system might be short on outfielders. But don’t limit your search to organizations with outfield prospects. In 2004, the Royals made Carlos Beltran available during the season. But they also demanded a major-league-ready catcher and third baseman back. That severely reduced suitors. And the Royals ended up with the useful John Buck and Mark Teahen, but not the impact players an unrestricted search could have brought.
“Don’t take a narrow focus, go get the best players,” one GM said. “If you are trading a Roy Halladay, you are not a good enough organization to look for just one position.”
7. KNOW YOUR ORGANIZATION BEST
No organization has sacrificed more prospects to make big deals recently than Atlanta to obtain Teixeira, Javier Vazquez and Nate McLouth. But the Braves believed they could deal catching (Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Tyler Flowers) because they had Brian McCann; starting pitching (Neftali Feliz, Charlie Morton) because they had Tommy Hanson; a shortstop (Elvis Andrus) because they had Yunel Escobar; and an outfielder (Gorkys Hernandez) because they had Jason Heyward.
A key to the dynastic Yankees was that former GM Gene Michael made big trades for players such as Cone, Tino Martinez and John Wetteland, and surrendered well-regarded prospects, but always protected Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Bernie Williams.
Ultimately the Diamondbacks got Haren without dealing Justin Upton or Max Scherzer, and the Mets got Santana without moving Mike Pelfrey or Fernando Martinez. Know thyself. That is one way to limit the pain.
8. KNOW MORE ABOUT THE PLAYER THAN HIS STATS
A.J. Burnett, Halladay’s pal and Blue Jays teammate from 2006-08, said due to his friend’s “focus” that “Doc can be effective anywhere he pitches.” But he is a Colorado guy who has played his entire career pretty much in non-contention in the hockey hotbed of Toronto. Ricciardi told me Halladay, who has a complete no-trade clause, has listed more places he would not go then he would. So Halladay, perhaps, knows something about himself.
Did the Mariners, for example, really know enough about how prickly and fragile Erik Bedard was before giving up such a great prospect haul to Baltimore?
9. DETERMINE YOUR NEEDS
Is quantity of good prospects to replenish a fallow system more important than a smaller package of can’t-miss types? Also, what is your time frame to win? Organizations are more willing to give up a greater volume of Single-A elite prospects than Triple-A elite prospects because of the grooming time still necessary to cultivate those prospects and the obvious attrition rate that occurs as players try to climb the system.
10. IGNORE YOUR CRITICS
When you trade a veteran star for lesser-known prospects, fans/media generally will beat you up. “You are not going to be judged fairly the next day nor is there any reason you should be,” Beane said. “They are going to know the great player like Halladay, but not know much about what you are getting. You have to walk away with what you and your staff wanted and hope everyone figures it out later. There are no backslaps the next day. You just hope it gets a little better every day after that as your plan is fully revealed.”