Ken Davidoff

Ken Davidoff

MLB

Where the top remaining free agents will go

Forecasting the free-agent market is both fun and difficult.

My top 30 free agents ran in The Post on Nov. 5 — with rankings and predictions. I had Robinson Cano signing with the Yankees and Jacoby Ellsbury going to the Mariners. Missed it by that much, as Don Adams used to say on “Get Smart.”

Here we sit with spring training actually starting Thursday for one team (the Diamondbacks), and seven of my top 30 remain unemployed.

So let’s do a review, reassessment, re-ranking and re-prediction:

1. Ubaldo Jimenez (originally 13). In November, I emailed a general manager and asked: Do you see any of Jimenez, Matt Garza and Ervin Santana matching the five-year, $80 million deal Detroit gave Anibal Sanchez the prior offseason, even factoring industry inflation and supply/demand? I thought Garza would do the best of these three, since he — unlike Jimenez and Santana — didn’t have draft compensation attached to him.

“I think Sanchez’s future value was much more solid last year than how Garza projects this year,” the GM wrote back. “Baseball’s economics might help Garza approach a Sanchez level of deal, but I doubt it.”

Garza got four years and $50 million from the Brewers last week. Jimenez probably won’t get even that much. He will cost his signing team a draft pick because the Indians made him the one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer after the season, and he was lousy for two-plus seasons before looking more like his 2010 prime (when he pitched for Colorado) during the final four months last year.

I pegged Jimenez for the Angels, for the same four years and $50 million Milwaukee gave Garza — I had Garza getting four years and $68 million from Toronto. It looks like the Angels are not inclined to give up their first-round draft pick (they select 15th), so let’s scrap that.

The Blue Jays are very likely to sign either Jimenez or Santana. Their first two draft picks (ninth and 11th) are protected, increasing their willingness to give up a second-round pick. They seem to be running this two-man free-agent derby, waiting for the prices to drop just a little more before popping one.

Let’s say Toronto signs Jimenez for three years and $39 million.

2. Ervin Santana (14). Joel Sherman wrote during the GM meetings Santana’s representatives were asking for a five-year, $112 million contract. In retrospect, that might have been a tad ambitious.

Put it this way: Cano horrified baseball folks by asking the Yankees for $305 million. He received $240 million from Seattle, 78.7 percent of his initial ask. Will Santana get 78.7 percent of his initial ask, which is $88.1 million? No, he will not. Like Jimenez, his value is dragged down by draft-pick compensation and by recent poor performance — he tallied a 5.16 ERA with the Angels in 2012.

I had Santana getting five years and $65 million from the Nationals, who traded for Doug Fister to upgrade their starting rotation. So where does that leave us with Santana? If the Blue Jays sign Jimenez, then I will say Santana goes to Arizona for a three-year, $39 million pact identical to Jimenez’s. The Diamondbacks have been itching to spend all offseason — they made aggressive runs at Carlos Beltran and Masahiro Tanaka, only to fall short to the Yankees on both — and they very much want to contend after two straight disappointing seasons.

3. A.J. Burnett (16). He would have been signed long ago had he not emulated his former Yankees teammate Andy Pettitte and taken his sweet time deciding whether to pitch — he just came to a decision last week. His late arrival onto the free-agency landscape has further complicated life for Jimenez and Santana.

Burnett repeatedly has opted to stay close to his Maryland home — he chose the Blue Jays as a free agent in 2005, then the Yankees as a free agent in 2008 and green-lighted the trade to Pittsburgh in 2012. So with the Orioles seemingly interested in Burnett, it would make sense for him to sign up.

I wonder if Burnett has any hesitation about returning to the AL East, after thriving in the NL Central. I will bet not enough to keep him out of Baltimore. The Orioles need Burnett for both baseball and public-relations reasons, as they’ve endured a very quiet winter highlighted by trading closer Jim Johnson and having potential new closer Grant Balfour’s fail his physical. Let’s say Burnett to the O’s for two years and $30 million.

4. Kendrys Morales (19). I had Morales returning to the Mariners for three years and $33 million, and I still wouldn’t rule out him getting back with Seattle. But when you combine his one-dimensional game (power) with the draft pick he would cost, he might have to wait for a spring-training injury to surface somewhere. I will guess Toronto for two years and $20 million, just because the Blue Jays are in win-now mode and, again, have their top two picks protected.

5. Bronson Arroyo (20). This one’s a head-scratcher. They don’t get any more reliable than Arroyo, who probably will pitch 200 innings in his 80-and-over league come 2057. Yet he remains without a team even though he doesn’t have a draft pick attached. His only apparent drawback is that he turns 37 this month.

I predicted Arroyo to go to the Twins for three years and $39 million. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Wednesday the Orioles, Diamondbacks and Dodgers are finalists for Arroyo. Let’s say the Dodgers, after falling short to the Yankees in the Tanaka sweepstakes, sign Arroyo for two years and $25 million.

6. Stephen Drew (22). Part of the reason the Red Sox haven’t been gaga about bringing back Drew is they like the idea of getting the extra draft pick if he goes elsewhere. The Mets are downplaying their chances of getting Drew. The Yankees, meanwhile — who might have the worst second base-shortstop-third base combination in all of baseball, assuming Derek Jeter can’t make a miraculous return to his 2012 form — appear to be nowhere with Drew, too.

This is a tricky one. If he has to choose short-term deals, you would think Drew would just as soon return to the Red Sox and try to defend a World Series title. Yet if he falters in Boston, Drew could face competition for playing time with Xander Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks on the left side of the infield.

I will say Drew goes back to the Red Sox for two years and $24 million. The Red Sox, who have experienced a pretty quiet winter, can justify it as part of their effort to repeat, then they will have excess talent in case of injury or trade needs.

7. Nelson Cruz (23). I don’t buy the thinking that Cruz’s market was hurt dramatically by his Biogenesis suspension. Remember, Cruz put up a very good two-thirds of a season (prior to his ban) during a time when Biogenesis was closed. He already has answered the question of whether he can perform without Biogenesis’ help.

No, I think Cruz just hasn’t prevailed in the musical chairs game that is free agency, particularly since outfield was this market’s strongest product. Maybe the Mariners will bail out Cruz, though, as CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports the team and outfielder are discussing an arrangement.

I had Cruz returning to the Rangers for two years and $30 million. Let’s just transfer those terms over to the Mariners.