Bill Parcells said you are what your record says you are, but the Hall of Fame coach might agree to amend that statement when talking about these Jets. That’s because it’s nearly impossible for a team to have a 5-7 record when it has a minus-121 point differential and minus-18 turnover ratio.
Compare that first stat, point differential, to the other 5-7 teams: Titans (minus-3), Steelers (minus-15), Chargers (plus-2), Giants (minus-60), Rams (plus-1). With the exception of the Giants, those are numbers you’d expect to see from teams that are maybe one lucky play from being .500. Also, bad turnover trends are hard to turn around in-season, particularly when the biggest culprit (Geno Smith) is handed back his job.
The record says the Jets are better than the 4-8 Raiders. The internals (Raiders are “only” minus-3 in turnovers and minus-63 in points) say Silver and Black.
The pick: Raiders +2¹/₂.
CHARGERS (-3) over Giants: Part of the answer here is written above — San Diego’s vastly superior point differential suggests these 5-7s are not equal. And as Paul Schwartz pointed out in Wednesday’s Post, the Giants have taken a lot of bows for not quitting, sugarcoating what a disaster this season has been.
Chiefs (-3) over REDSKINS: What a bargain price on the 9-3 Chiefs, who have lost three in a row, two to the Broncos. Andy Reid knows this former NFC East rival well, and Alex Smith will patiently pick apart the Skins, while his defense pounds gimpy Robert Griffin III.
Vikings (+6¹/₂) over RAVENS: Eight of the Ravens’ last nine games have been decided by six points or fewer— seven of those by three points or fewer. So that alone makes it too hard to give the touchdown to the Vikings, who have covered four of their last five. Snow and sleet are bad for dome teams, but good for running teams.
PATRIOTS (-11) over Browns: Nine of the Patriots’ 12 games have been decided by seven points or fewer. So this is a risk at this number, but not as big as counting on whichever quarterback the Browns put up against Tom Brady.
Colts (+6¹/₂) over BENGALS: Pair of 8-4 division leaders, and the Bengals have the better point differential and a closer second-place chaser. But those things are compensated by a strikingly high line, so the nod is to the Colts, who have been ragged but have risen up to beat top teams such as the Broncos, 49ers and Seahawks.
Falcons (+7) over PACKERS: Getting some bonus Falcons points in this line because of the 23-degree temps and light snow. And what makes anyone think the Packers can function in that weather without Aaron Rodgers?
EAGLES (-2¹/₂) over Lions: Can’t do much better than Nick Foles’ 19 touchdowns and no interceptions. And the Eagles’ offense seems well suited to keep Foles out of the clutches of the Lions’ sackmen.
STEELERS (-3) over Dolphins: The weather, 34 with snow and sleet, tilts this too-close-to-call into the Steelers’ column. Won’t bother the Dolphins as much as it may lift Big Ben & Co.
BUCCANEERS (-2¹/₂) over Bills: Bills’ prez admits it could be detrimental to move a December outdoor game in Orchard Park against a dome team, into a dome in Toronto. Ya think?! Bucs won three and covered four in a row before no-disgrace loss at Carolina.
BRONCOS (-12) over Titans: Broncos lose the tiebreaker to Patriots and need to stay ahead of them to get top seed. Cold and snow may affect Peyton Manning’s downfield passing game, but Broncos have won 12 in a row at home in all weather, the last eight by double-digits.
Rams (+6¹/₂) over Cardinals: Nice price on Rams, who had won two in a row against Colts and Bears before respectable 23-13 loss at San Francisco.
49ERS (-2¹/₂) over Seahawks: Double-revenge game for Niners, who lost last two in Seattle by combined 71-16. Bit of a letdown spot for Seahawks off rousing Monday night home win against the Saints. Sehawks may be the best team in NFL, but this isn’t their week.
Panthers (+3) over SAINTS: Some will pick the Saints simply because they are home, and usually that’s good enough reason. But they may have met their match this time against the NFL’s No. 2 yardage defense, after a cross-country Monday nighter. Panthers are a “better” 9-3 based on the point differential and turnover ratio criteria mentioned earlier.
MONDAY NIGHT
BEARS (-1) over Cowboys: Josh McCown is a mini-Foles with 9 touchdowns and 1 interception. Helps to have Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, with Matt Forte to run it. Close call, but tough spot for Cowboys in the Chicago chill.
BEST BETS: Chiefs, Buccaneers, Rams
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Chiefs
(Locks 4-8-1)
LAST WEEK: 12-4 overall, 2-1 Best Bets
THURSDAY NIGHT: Texans