When he ordered a full-scale inva sion of Deraa last week, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad wanted to turn the rebel city into a warning to others not to rise against his despotic rule. On the eve of another nationwide “Friday of Rage,” it’s clear that gamble failed.
To ensure the success of the invasion, Assad put units of his elite Armored Division, led by his younger brother Maher, in charge of the operation. Assad’s henchmen then killed at least 200 people in Deraa and arrested another 500.
Yet large chunks of the town, close to the Jordanian border, still escape their control. Nor has invasion managed to terrorize the rest of Syria back into the deadly silence the Assads imposed for decades.
Yesterday, the president felt obliged to order his army to invade several more cities — most notably Homs, where a mass demonstration on Tuesday called on Syrians to march to Deraa to take bread, water and medical aid to the people.
“Don’t let Deraa be starved into surrender!” was one slogan, as marchers waved loaves of bread in the air.
Syrian human-rights groups have established the names of 2,834 people arrested in 23 cities over the last four days. And the list is growing by the hour as the families of those picked up supply new names and addresses; the best estimates suggest it may reach 10,000.
Everywhere, the “invaders” follow the same script. They start by sealing off the target city and cutting off its water, electricity, telephones and Internet. Then they seize control of food supplies before proceeding to “comb out” the central neighborhoods.
Young and middle-aged men have their identity cards checked; those from ages 15 to 45 are taken away. Even those shot by the security forces, including the wounded being treated in government hospitals, aren’t spared.
That tactic violates Red Cross conventions that forbid maltreatment of the wounded, even in an armed conflict. And in Syria, the wounded are unarmed civilians.
It’s too early to tell where all this will lead. But the rebels’ resilience has surprised many Syrians.
Six weeks after the uprising started, Damascus is abuzz with speculation about the Assad clan’s infighting and the first signs that at least part of the army may be getting uneasy about the president’s “invade and occupy” strategy. Even Defense Minister Ali Habib and army Chief of Staff Davoud Rajha are reportedly having second thoughts about the wisdom of a purely repressive approach to the crisis.
Things don’t look so hot for Assad on the diplomatic front, either. Yesterday, the German foreign ministry started procedures leading to “targeted sanctions” against the Syrian regime and its top leaders. The European Union is studying an even broader package of sanctions.
Turkey, which at first tried to “persuade” Assad to take the path of reform, is clearly distancing itself from the despot. Even Iran, Assad’s principal foreign backer and paymaster, is trying to hedge its bets.
While there are indications that Iran may have sent snipers to help Assad kill his people, Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi caused a stir by telling a press conference that Tehran “fully understands the legitimate demands of the Syrians.”
Salehi’s coded message to Assad is simple: Get a grip or don’t expect a blank check from us.
Tomorrow’s “Day of Rage” is shaping up as yet another crucial test for Assad.