I’m back!
I got 12 out of 16 in the Sweet 16 for 75 percent — which is better than my grades in Sister Mary Ann Outrageous’ class in algebra.
Fifteen games to crown a champion. We’ll focus on the East, but here’s how I see it breaking down:
EAST
UCONN-IOWA STATE: I coached against UConn coach Kevin Ollie when he was a senior at Connecticut, I was coaching Providence. He was a glue guy for that team. He was like a coach on the floor. Whatever it took to win, he did. Lightning quick, tough as nails. Just a consummate point guard. Jim Calhoun’s teams played with a little bit more of an edge. They’re not as mean or quite as physical as the teams Calhoun had, not as good a rebounding team — they’re more perimeter-oriented, these guys. Part of it’s recruiting, part of it’s the coach.
They’re unselfish, they’re well-coached, they run their stuff through Shabazz Napier. I think he’s a first-team All-American. They say he’s 6-1, but that’s standing on a New York city phone book. He’s like a tailback, can change directions, just weave his way through, like Gale Sayers. He’s a money player — he takes big shots, makes big shots. He wants the big shots.
But he’ll have to do too much. Unless he’s Hercules, it’s going to be tough for them to win. Ryan Boatright is up and down, DeAndre Daniels is a good shooter, but sometimes he disappears. Amida Brimah, a big guy, is not an offensive player.
Iowa State lost Georges Niang, but they still got arguably the top 1-2 scoring punch in the country that’s left in DeAndre Kane and Melvin Ejim. Kane’s playing like Oscar Robertson. He’s more athletic than Oscar, but he’s a big, physical guard. The UConn guards are small. I think he’s gonna have to put Boatwright on him, you can’t lose Shabazz.
They’re not a great defensive team, and Iowa State is one of the best scoring teams in the country. Ejim’s a tough matchup too, he can shoot 3s, he goes inside, outside and just play loose. Coach Fred Hoiberg’s philosophy is life is short, shoot 3s. Connecticut sometimes struggles to score.
The Connecticut fans are going to buy up the tickets they can at the Garden, so that’ll help, no question. It’s almost going to be like a home game. Iowa State, 84-80
VIRGINIA-MICHIGAN STATE: You have to be able to hit 3s against Virginia’s pack line defense, which means nobody gets to the rim, and Michigan State shoots 39 percent. And they have the two best players in the game — Adreian Payne and Gary Harris. The first team to 50 wins. Virginia kills you with their slow, methodical style of play, it gets you out of your rhythm, a little bit like Princeton. I think Michigan State coach Tom Izzo and Michigan coach John Beilein are the two best coaches in the country.
Virginia can win — Joe Harris is having a great year, and Malcolm Brogdon was hurt last year, is playing great, and their freshman, London Perrantes, had no turnovers in 33 minutes against Memphis, and Coastal Carolina last Friday night, which is amazing for a freshman in a big game. Michigan State, 54-52
MICHIGAN STATE-IOWA STATE: Michigan State is finally together. If they had the whole team together, they wouldn’t be a 4 seed, they’d probably be a 1 seed along with some of these other teams. Coming into the season, I think they had the best combination of talent, experience and coaching. Then they had a million injuries.
Iowa State is thin and small on their frontline. Payne controls the paint offensively and defensively, and Harris lights up Iowa State from the outside. Michigan State, 75-70
SOUTH
FLORIDA-UCLA: UCLA is a great offensive team (82 ppg), Florida is a great defensive team (57 ppg). I love defense, but when I coached, some of my former players thought defense was an underarm spray. Florida’s experience is a big factor, they got a real good bench, and Scottie Wilbekin is going to take over. And UCLA can’t deal with Patric Young inside. Florida, 75-65
DAYTON-STANFORD: Dayton has a bunch of hard-nosed transfers, sleepers and guys they found under rocks. They’re very tough — they do pushups on picket fences, and catch javelins at their shootarounds. These guys have had part-time jobs at tattoo parlors, funeral homes and supermarkets to make ends meet. So they’re hungry. Stanford is big and athletic and talented, but they’re more worried about their summer jobs at the United Nations, on Wall Street and on Capitol Hill. Dayton’s quickness and the shooting of Devin Oliver and Jordan Sibert are the difference. Dayton, 64-62
FLORIDA-DAYTON: Young dominates the paint, and Wilbekin stays hot and the Gators finally get back to the Final Four. Florida, 74-64
MIDWEST
LOUISVILLE-KENTUCKY: One for the ages. Rick Pitino and John Calipari are silk-suiters who are going to have plenty of mousse on their hair, a flashy tie and their nose hairs removed by specialists. A revenge game for Louisville. Russ Smith will step it up and have a big game and Luke Hancock is going to hit some clutch 3s. Kentucky’s frontline will dominate the boards, but turnovers will doom the Wildcats. Chris Jones will wreak havoc in the backcourt. Louisville, 74-70
TENNESSEE-MICHIGAN: Tennessee’s Jarnell Stokes and Jeronne Maymon are monsters in Bloody Nose Lane, and they look like offensive linemen for the Chicago Bears. I would rather clothe them than feed them for a year, they eat like they’re going to the electric chair, these guys. Josh Richardson is playing lights out. Tennessee’s defense (61 ppg) will slow down Nik Stauskas and Caris LeVert — Michigan lives by the 3 and dies by the 3. Tennessee, 75-73
TENNESSEE-LOUISVILLE: Tennessee doesn’t have a pure point guard, so Louisville’s pressure defense wreaks havoc. Tennessee has trouble getting the ball to the top of the key. Louisville, 77-71
WEST
SAN DIEGO STATE-ARIZONA: Skylar Spencer blocks everything, San Diego State’s long as heck. They have trouble scoring sometimes, but they hold teams to 56 ppg and 38 percent field goal percentage. This is for recruiting supremacy in the West Coast. Arizona can’t guard Xavier Thames, the best guy on the court. St. John’s transfer Dwayne Polee II has given San Diego State a great lift off the bench. Winston Shepard will slow down Nick Johnson and Aaron Gordon. Arizona has trouble scoring sometimes. San Diego State, 60-58
BAYLOR-WISCONSIN: Baylor’s zone frustrates Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky and the swing offense. Baylor’s Brady Heslip and Corey Jefferson are going to have big games. Baylor, 75-71
SAN DIEGO STATE-BAYLOR: This game will be played above the rim. Thames has more moves than a can of worms, he’ll penetrate inside the zone and kick it out for open jumpers or feed his big guys with lobs. A white knuckler. San Diego State, 56-55
FINAL FOUR
FLORIDA-MICHIGAN STATE: Probably should be the national championship game. Michigan State point guard Keith Appling (wrist) isn’t 100 percent. Florida looks almost invincible. Florida, 67-64
SAN DIEGO STATE-LOUISVILLE: The Aztecs have never seen the quickness of Smith and Jones, and Montrezl Harrell springs off a trampoline and gets their frontline in foul trouble. San Diego State just can’t score enough to stay with Louisville. Louisville, 70-66
NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP
FLORIDA-LOUISVILLE: Florida can score from all five positions and their bench is a little deeper. Young can get Harrell in foul trouble. Louisville’s pressure won’t bother Florida’s experienced guards. Florida, 60-59