CROUCHING TIGER: Tiger Woods reacts to missing a birdie putt on the 17th green during the weather-delayed third round of the Farmers Insurance Open yesterday. (Reuters)
LA JOLLA, Calif. — If you know your history and do the math, you don’t have to be an Ivy League graduate to know the probability of a Tiger Woods victory today is as high as the sun rising in the morning.
Woods takes a six-shot lead into today’s completion of the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, where he’ll have 11 holes to play to close it out when play resumes at 2:10 p.m. Eastern Time.
The third round was suspended due to fog on Saturday, leading to the completion of the third round and beginning of the final round yesterday.
Barring a Woods collapse — or an unforeseen circumstance such as another crash into a fire hydrant or unexpected appearances from his ex-wife Elin Nordegren or Y.E. Yang — the day figures to be a victory lap for him.
Woods has held at least a share of the lead entering the final round 53 times in his career and converted 49 of them into victories.
He has won eight times in his career at Torrey Pines — seven times in this event and once in the U.S. Open. His average winning margin of victory in his six wins at this event is 3.17 strokes. In his 50 rounds at Torrey Pines, Woods has shot par or better in 47 of them and shot under par 43 times.
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The closest competitors to Woods’ 17-under-par are two players who have won this event before — defending-champion Brandt Snedeker and 2009 winner Nick Watney, both of whom are 11-under. Snedeker has just five more holes to play today and Watney has 10.
“It would be a really interesting tournament if he wasn’t here in terms of the scoring,’’ joked PGA Tour rookie Brad Fritsch, eight back at 9-under.
Woods began yesterday with a two-shot lead through 36 holes and extended his advantage to four shots through three rounds and then six entering today, thanks to going 3-under on the seven holes he played before the final round was suspended due to darkness.
“The whole idea was to build on my lead,’’ Woods said. “I’ve got to do it again [today].’’
If history has a say, Woods will cruise to his 75th career win, seven behind Sam Snead’s all-time record of 82.
“I think I’ve had a very successful career,’’ Woods said. “This is my 18th season and I’ve had some really good years in there. I’m very proud of what I’ve done.’’
Woods’ last win at Torrey Pines was also his last major championship victory — the 2008 U.S. Open. That also came in a Monday finish: his scintillating 19-hole playoff victory over Rocco Mediate.
In the midst of Woods’ big day, two of the best moments were provided by Erik Compton, who went 3-under par on the final two holes of his third round to get to 9-under, five shots behind Woods entering the final round.
Compton drained a long birdie putt that hung on the lip of the cup for several moments before dropping in, and a few minutes later he eagled the 18th when he reached the green in two and buried another long putt.
“It was one of the coolest moments I’ve ever experienced as a professional,’’ said Compton, 8-under entering today.
For Compton, who has undergone two heart transplants and has never finished better than in a tie for 13th on the PGA Tour, this is as close to contention for a win as he has experienced to date.
“This is the ultimate for me,’’ he said. “This is what I’ve been trying to do for years.’’
When asked if he were prepared to “chase’’ Woods in the final round, Compton joked, “I’m trying to chase myself out here.’’