A political party’s fortunes and health are almost exclusively determined by how many people vote for it. When it wins elections, it’s in good shape. When it loses them, it’s in bad shape.
In many states, the Republican Party is in good shape because it wins elections. But nationally, the GOP is in bad shape because it loses elections.
An ideological movement is about enduring ideas and deeply held philosophical beliefs. Its health and well-being aren’t determined by vote totals in any given year. Indeed, its popularity isn’t the point; the point is that people who belong to the movement believe in the ideas and hold the beliefs, popular or not.
The problem with the close alliance between the Republican Party and the conservative movement is that the two are often confused for each other — both by those who hope for electoral success on the Right and those who want to see conservative ideas eliminated from the public discussion.
The essence of the problem for the GOP is extraordinarily simple: Too few people are voting for it nationwide. It has to figure out ways to make more people vote for its candidates for Senate and for president. To do so, Republicans must make themselves more attractive to more people. They need to reach out.
Conservatism doesn’t. An animating philosophy doesn’t change its core because it loses a plebiscite. The set of ideas that emanates from the philosophy — about the limits of the state, the primacy of the individual, the centrality of the family as the original social unit — isn’t a party platform, to be revised every two to four years based on events.
The GOP needs to make arguments that will once again convince Americans it stands closer to the center of American life than the Democratic Party. Republicans hold the Right; Democrats hold the left. The electoral fight in America is, always has been and always will be over the center.
Conservatives are right to be offended by the argument that conservatism needs to move to the center. The center is a place where convictions are far less strong. In the center, cheap emotion often has the advantage over passionately argued ideas.
Centrists by definition do not follow the logic of ideologues, who believe one idea leads to another and then to another until an entire philosophy is revealed. They dine a la carte. They like this one, they don’t like that other one and they’re not always clear about why.
For conservatives, the “center” has become code for a kind of soft liberalism that does not want to claim the name. It’s mushy. You don’t risk anything by being in the center — your sleep isn’t troubled by the failure of your ideas, your friendships aren’t threatened by disagreement, your children aren’t embarrassed by the heated way you argue. Being in the center means you don’t stake your ground.
Conservatives should hold fast to what they believe. But the Republican Party is not the conservative movement. Its purpose is different.
The movement shouldn’t destroy itself by moving to the center. But if the movement prevents the Republican Party from appealing to the center — if it continues to punish and penalize candidates and politicians who are trying to find the means to expand the party’s appeal — then it will mortally damage the GOP.
And in doing so, the conservative movement will ensure that the future belongs to liberals and the Left. They will own the center, and the Republican Party will be consigned to the periphery, with only conservatives living inside its smaller tent.