ORLANDO, Fla. — To quote Confucius: “A Duke loss is worth a busted bracket.”
Dayton (+7) over Syracuse: Even after an impressive win over Ohio State, the Flyers still can’t get respect against the big boys. Going up against a similarly strong defensive team which often has prolonged offensive slumps, Dayton — winner of 11 of its past 13 games — will create a rare sweat in Buffalo, for the Orange. Sensitive Syracuse fans are welcome to continue bombarding my inbox.
Villanova (-3½) over UConn: The line has swung heavily in the Huskies’ favor since opening, and even against Shabazz Napier, Rule No. 1 applies: When the public goes one way, you go the other way.
Florida (-5½) over Pittsburgh: An underrated and historic campaign by the Gators has seen very few hiccups this season. So, after an understandable letdown against Albany in its first game of the tournament, Florida will respond with an epic performance in front of its home crowd. The Panthers, despite their beatdown of Colorado on Thursday, just can’t be trusted against top competition, having gone 3-7 against tournament teams this season, with none nearly as talented as the Gators.
Michigan (-5) over Texas: The Longhorns’ dramatic win over Arizona State was set up by an uncharacteristically good shooting day — 53.4 percent from the field — and though Michigan’s defense is often optional, Texas will not be able to match its performance, let alone the Wolverines’ high-powered offense.
North Dakota State (+3½) over San Diego State: Without the beaches and wonderful weather of Florida Gulf Coast, North Dakota State shouldn’t expect the same sort of enrollment boost next year, but the best shooting team in the nation has a great shot to match its Sweet 16 run. “Dunk City” make way for “Dung City.”
2014 record: 21-11-1
2011-13 record: 72-47-2