Opinion

The new cold war

London– John Kerry may not have noticed it, but a day of futile diplomatic gesticulation at the G-8 meeting here made it clear that a new Cold War is raging with some of the old usual suspects pitted against the United States and its allies.

This time, though, the US appears in denial about the new Cold War waged under Russian leadership. Kerry is clinging to the illusion that membership of the G-8 has transformed Russia into a partner rather than an adversary.

The secretary of state came to London to promote G-8 “consensus” on several issues ahead of the group’s June summit in Northern Ireland.

On three issues, Kerry has transformed the illusion of “working together with Russia” into an art form.

The first is the collapse of talks between Iran and the 5+1 group of major powers about the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions. Held in Almaty, Kazakhstan, the talks hit a wall when Iran demanded unilateral concessions, notably the lifting of UN-imposed sanctions. It also demanded solemn recognition of its right to enrich uranium even up to weapons-grade levels.

What would Iran offer in return? Nothing.

This position was significantly tougher than in the previous round a month ago. The reason? A signal on the eve of the Almaty talks from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Moscow wouldn’t allow further measures against Tehran.

Iranian negotiators had become so cocky that they would not even agree on a date for another round.

Kerry could do no better than uttering such banalities as “Time is running out.” In fact, time is the one thing that never runs out; every tomorrow is followed by endless tomorrows while “all options” perish “on the table.”

The second issue is the continued carnage in Syria.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague warned against “the largest human catastrophe of the 21st century,” repeating his call for an end to the ban on the supply of self-defense weapons to pro-democracy forces in Syria.

Kerry, however, was pinning his hopes on a “dialogue” with Lavrov — thus letting Russia continue arming Assad while imposing an arms embargo on his opponents.

The third issue concerns the game of Russian roulette that North Korea’s juvenile leader, Kim Jong Un, is playing with his country and the region.

Chasing the mirage of an “understanding” with Russia, Kerry publicly congratulated himself about his “dialogue” with Lavrov. But the signal that the G-8 sent to Pyongyang was one of weakness and confusion. Russia seems to be enjoying the spectacle of the North Korean midget bullying the American 800-pound gorilla.

In this new Cold War, Russia is cast as a champion of “developing nations” against “arrogant powers,” meaning the US and its allies.

In three theaters, Russia is waging the new Cold War with the greatest intensity.

The first is the Middle East, where President Vladimir Putin has allied himself with Iran to protect the regime in Syria and to transform Hezbollah into Lebanon’s de facto government. Putin and Tehran are also working together to dominate Iraq — Russia, by signing oil and arms contracts; Iran, by bribing politicians and tribal chiefs and maintaining sleeper cells in the Shiite-majority provinces.

To underline the alliance, Iran last month played host to a Russian naval task force making a “goodwill” call on the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point through which passes a quarter of the oil for world markets. Control of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq would give the Russo-Iranian axis a contiguous presence from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf.

The new Cold War allies are also active in the Caspian Basin, a region of growing importance in energy markets. They are trying to consolidate their domination of Armenia while isolating pro-Western Azerbaijan. Russia is especially active in Georgia, undoing two decades of rapprochement with the West.

The Russo-Iranian presence in the Levant and Transcaucasia increases pressure on Turkey, a NATO member. Moscow and Tehran are also in tandem to gain a dominant position in Afghanistan as US and allied troops leave in 2014.

The second theater is Latin America.

Russia and Iran have invested billions in countries with leftist governments, notably Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Bolivia. Last week, Iran and Argentina reached a settlement regarding the bombing of a Jewish center by Iranian agents in Buenos Aires. The Tehran media promised “cooperation against arrogant powers.”

The media, especially satellite TV, provide the third theater of the new Cold War.

State-controlled Russian and Iranian channels in several languages maintain a barrage of vilification and disinformation against the United States.

Russia has also set up a number of think tanks and “research institutes” designed to give anti-American propaganda a veneer of academic respectability. Utterances by Russian “experts” are relayed by Iranian government channels in a dozen languages.

With the fall of the Soviet empire, Russia is no longer an enemy of the West. But it acts as an adversary and will do so for as long as it is divided between the promise of genuine democratization and the temptation of despotic rule.