The day before every major event, The Post’s MMA expert Marc Raimondi breaks down what you should know in order to intelligently wager on the fights.
On Saturday, the UFC is in London for UFC on Fuel TV 7. Renan Barao defends his interim bantamweight title against Michael McDonald in the main event at Wembley Arena, while Cub Swanson and Dustin Poirier compete in a featherweight contender bout in the co-main event.
Here are the lines from 5dimes:
MAIN CARD (Fuel TV, 3 p.m.)
Renan Barao (-320) vs. Michael McDonald (+260)
Cub Swanson (-120) vs. Dustin Poirier (+100)
Jimi Manuwa (-235) vs. Cyrille Diabate (+195)
Gunnar Nelson (-265) vs. Jorge Santiago (+225)
James Te Huna (-225) vs. Ryan Jimmo (+185)
Che Mills (-185) vs. Matt Riddle (+165)
PRELIMS (Facebook, 12:15 p.m.)
Terry Etim (-340) vs. Renee Forte (+280)
Danny Castillo (-110) vs. Paul Sass (-110)
Josh Grispi (-140) vs. Andy Ogle (+120)
Tom Watson (-145) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (+125)
Vaughan Lee (-190) vs. Motonobu Tezuka (+165)
Ulysses Gomez (-240) vs. Phil Harris (+200)
I’m a little surprised Barao is as big of a favorite as he is against McDonald. That’s not saying I don’t think Barao will win – I believe he will. But McDonald is not to be taken lightly. Barao’s standup is just so technically sound and the Brazilian is super athletic. There’s a reason why he’s a ridiculous 29-1. You can feel safe putting Barao in your parlay.
I feel that way about Manuwa, too. The Englishman by way of Nigeria is an absolute beast and has yet to lose in his career. Diabate, though dangerous standing up, is more of a journeyman. Etim is an obvious choice for the parlay because of his experience and Gomez has a serious grappling advantage over Harris.
Poirier just fought in December, beating Jonathan Brookins at The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale, but sometimes that quick turnaround can work in your favor. Swanson is a threat at 145 pounds, but Poirier has so many tools in his toolbox. The 24-year-old is a rising star.
I also like Sass because of his wicked submission ability. Castillo’s strength is wrestling, but if he puts Sass on his back he could be in trouble. Ironically, I’m going the opposite way with Santiago and Nelson. I’m taking Santiago as my upset special because of his experience. Nelson is a submission dynamo, but if Santiago can keep it standing he has a distinct advantage. The guy has been through a lot of wars and knows how to handle himself in the cage.
BEST BETS
POT: 983.75 (-200.00)
(Original pot: $1,000)
Parlay
Barao, Manuwa, Etim, Gomez
$150 to win $364.53
Straight bets
Poirier over Swanson
$50 to win $50
Sass over Castillo
$55 to win $50
Upset special
Santiago over Nelson
$20 to win $45
LOOKING BACK
UFC 156 was an utter failure. The parlay was busted – early and often. In fact, a reverse parlay would have worked. Every fighter, all significant favorites, lost. At least it was over quickly.
Frankie Edgar also lost to Jose Aldo in the main event for the featherweight title and Tyron Woodley stunned Jay Hieron with a first-round TKO. In the upset special, Ian McCall narrowly fell to Joseph Benavidez by unanimous decision.
Complete shutout.