The day before every major event, The Post’s MMA expert Marc Raimondi breaks down what you should know in order to intelligently wager on the fight.
On Saturday, the UFC is in Las Vegas for UFC 162. Anderson Silva defends his middleweight title against undefeated challenger Chris Weidman of Long Island in the headliner. In the co-main event, New Jersey’s Frankie Edgar takes on Charles Oliveira. Tim Kennedy and Roger Gracie also make their UFC debuts against each other.
Here are the lines from 5dimes:
MAIN CARD (PPV, 10 p.m.)
Anderson Silva (-240) vs. Chris Weidman (+200)
Frankie Edgar (-580) vs. Charles Oliveira (+440)
Tim Kennedy (-145) vs. Roger Gracie (+125)
Mark Munoz (-110) vs. Tim Boetsch (-110)
Cub Swanson (-225) vs. Dennis Siver (+185)
PRELIMS (FX, 8 p.m.)
Andrew Craig (-160) vs. Chris Leben (+140)
Norman Parke (-210) vs. Kazuki Tokudome (+175)
Gabriel Gonzaga (-240) vs. Dave Herman (+200)
Edson Barboza (-600) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (+450)
PRELIMS (Facebook, 7 p.m.)
Seth Baczynski (-290) vs. Brian Melancon (+245)
Mike Pierce (-640) vs. David Mitchell (+270)
UFC president Dana White says every fighter he’s talked to is picking Weidman to win. The sports book brass at the MGM Grand are probably glad to hear that. I’m taking Silva and you should be confident enough to put him in your parlay. He has the experience in these situations – Weidman has never even fought on pay per view. This is a whole new ball game for the Long Island boy. Silva has been doing this dance for seven years. That cannot be understated.
While we’re talking parlay, Edgar is a great pick and a heavy favorite. So are Barboza and Pierce. I’d be stunned if all three of those guys didn’t win. Then there’s Swanson. That will be a much closer fight, but I like him to beat Siver, because he’s more well-rounded.
The main card is filled with interesting fights and Kennedy-Gracie is one. I like Kennedy – and those tiny odds – because of his athleticism and strength. He should overpower the Brazilian jiu-jitsu master.
Moving on, I’m picking Craig over Leben, who looked absolutely shot in his last fight against Derek Brunson. The book on how to beat Leben has been written and I think Craig will add the next chapter. In my not-so-confident upset special, I have Herman over Gonzaga. If it stays standing, Herman has a good chance to knock out the big, hairy Brazilian. If it goes to the ground? Hold your breath.
BEST BETS
POT: $926.55 (+$206.08)
(Original pot: $1,000)
Parlay
Silva, Edgar, Swanson, Barboza, Pierce
$100 to win $223.63
Straight bets
Kennedy over Gracie
$75 to win $50
Craig over Leben
$32 to win $20
Upset special
Herman over Gonzaga
$20 to win $40
LOOKING BACK
Brazil was very, very good to us. At UFC on Fuel TV 10, our parlay was nailed, Thiago Silva came through against Rafael Cavalcante and Ildemar Alcantara did the same against Leandro Silva. Only the upset special – Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira over Fabricio Werdum – was a bust.