The day before every major event, The Post’s MMA expert Marc Raimondi breaks down what you should know in order to intelligently wager on the fight.
On Saturday, the UFC is in Jaragua do Sul, Brazil for UFC on FX 8. Luke Rockhold, the last Strikeforce middleweight champion, meets Vitor Belfort in the main event. It’s a fight with serious division implications. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza makes his debut against Chris Camozzi in the co-headliner.
Here are the lines from 5dimes:
MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m.)
Luke Rockhold (-125) vs. Vitor Belfort (+105)
Ronaldo Souza (-550) vs. Chris Camozzi (+425)
Rafael dos Anjos (-190) vs. Evan Dunham (+165)
Rafael Natal (-325) vs. Joao Zeferino (+265)
PRELIMS (Fuel TV, 6 p.m.)
Nik Lentz (-130) vs. Hacran Dias (+110)
Francisco Trinaldo (-340) vs. Mike Rio (+280)
Gleison Tibau (-220) vs. John Cholish (+180)
Paulo Thiago (-160) vs. Michael Prazeres (+140)
Yuri Alcantara (-550) vs. Ilarde Santos (+425)
Fabio Maldonado (-255) vs. Roger Hollett (+215)
PRELIMS (Facebook, 4:30 p.m.)
John Lineker (-120) vs. Azamat Gashimov (+100)
Jussier Formiga (-140) vs. Chris Cariaso (+120)
Lucas Martins (-280) vs. Jeremy Larsen (+240)
This is the closest main event in awhile for the UFC. Neither men winning would be a huge shock. The fight will likely remain standing with Rockhold having a technical advantage and Belfort holding a power advantage. Whoever is quicker could be the one to win. But my pick if Belfort because of his power. All he has to do is connect with Rockhold’s chin once – with a fist or a shin – and the fight could be over. That’s why I’m confident in this (mini) upset special.
Souza was supposed to face Queens resident Costa Philippou, but Philippou was injured and Camozzi stepped in. Souza should cruise with his jiu-jitsu and improved striking. He’s the anchor to your all-Brazilian parlay. Natal, Alcantara and Maldonado should all be on there.
Dos Anjos is on the upswing and has a physical strength advantage over Dunham. Lentz has the same against Dias and his wrestling ability is the great equalizer. With those small lines, both dos Anjos and Lentz are solid wagers.
BEST BETS
POT: $614.20 ($-121.00)
(Original pot: $1,000)
Parlay
Souza, Natal, Alcantara, Maldonado
$100 to win $154.27
Straight bets
Lentz over Dias
$39 to win $30
dos Anjos over Dunham
$40 to win $20
Upset special
Belfort over Rockhold
$20 to win $21
LOOKING BACK
The cold streak continues as we fade deeper into the red.
Ovince St. Preux beat Gian Villante, but Jim Miller’s loss to Pat Healy was a killer for the parlay. Johnny Bedford and Alan Belcher also did not come through.