BY TIM BONTEMPS
The countdown is on.
With 20 days remaining until Selection Sunday, the time is now for teams to make their final impressions on the NCAA Tournament’s selection committee if they want to find themselves in this year’s field of 65.
Starting today, The Post is going to help you keep track of who’s in and out of the tournament. We’ll break down each of the six power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big XII, Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC), as well as the potential at-large teams from the rest of college basketball.
By our count, the big six conferences have locked up 18 of the 65 available spots on the dance floor. In addition, the Atlantic 10 (Xavier), Conference USA (Memphis), Horizon (Butler) and West Coast (Gonzaga) each have a bid locked up and tack on the 13 teams that should feel comfortable about their position.
There are 21 remaining conference champions, but at-large will be freed up when a locked-in team wins their conference tournament. So the real debate should come from a pool of roughly 30 teams fighting for the remaining bids, which could be a few as nine spots and as many as 18 depending on how things fall come Championship Week.
With the explanations out of the way, it is on to the Watch.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Locks: North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Wake Forest
Should be in: Boston College, Florida State
On the bubble: Maryland, Miami, Virginia Tech
While the top four teams are jockeying for seeding position, the middle of the ACC will determine whether the conference ends up with as many as eight teams or as few as five. Boston College hosts Florida State tomorrow night, with the winner likely moving to a lock.
Thanks to its improbable comeback win against North Carolina in College Park Saturday, Maryland pushed itself back into the at-large picture. The Terrapins have another big opportunity Wednesday when they host Duke, where they will also try to avenge a 41-point whipping the Blue Devils handed out on Jan. 24.
After losing three straight, Miami knocked off BC at home Saturday, and need to sweep their final three games at Virginia and Georgia Tech and home against N.C. State.
Meanwhile, Virginia Tech finds themselves in real trouble after dropping three straight against Maryland, Virginia and Florida State. They now travel to Clemson, host Duke and North Carolina and finish up the regular season with a trip to Tallahassee. Ouch.
Big East Conference:
Locks: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova
Should be in: Syracuse, West Virginia
On the bubble: Georgetown, Providence, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
Despite the fact that Syracuse has lost six of their previous eight games, their overall profile (including non-conference wins over Florida, Kansas and Memphis) should get them into the tournament this year – though the Orange will have to start worrying if they don’t take of business at the Garden tomorrow night against St. John’s. West Virginia should move to the lock category if they can go to Cincinnati and win Thursday night.
Outside of the top seven, the Big East looks hard-pressed to pick up any more at-large bids. Providence’s profile, outside of a sweep of Cincinnati, isn’t very appealing. The Friars have a chance to change that when they host new No. 1 Pitt tomorrow night.
It’s probably a make or break week for the Bearcats, who need to make hay against West Virginia and Syracuse this week. Notre Dame has to go at least 3-1 in its last four games (Rutgers, @ Connecticut, Villanova, St. John’s) to give themselves a chance, while Georgetown (Louisville tonight, @ Villanova Saturday) likely need both games to keep themselves in the conversation.
Big XII Conference:
Locks: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Should be in: Texas
On the bubble: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Kansas State
With its win over Oklahoma Saturday night, Texas has just about wrapped up a tournament bid. Oklahoma State has a chance to help themselves in a big way when they host the Longhorns Saturday night.
One of the bigger games on the docket this week in the bubble world will be in Lincoln, Neb. tomorrow night, when the Cornhuskers host Texas A&M in a matchup that’s close to an elimination game.
With three straight against Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma State, Kansas State can write its own ticket.
At 4-8 in the conference, Baylor probably needs to run the table in its last four, which includes a trip to Austin and hosting Nebraska, to have a realistic shot.
Big Ten Conference:
Locks: Michigan State, Purdue
Should be in: Illinois, Ohio State
On the bubble: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan
Although the Big Ten doesn’t have the Q Rating that the Big East or ACC does in college basketball circles, a deep pool of solid-to-good programs has a chance to give the Big Ten as many as eight bids.
Illinois may be in already, and should be fine unless they drop their final three games of the regular season. Ohio State’s outlook has gotten a little fuzzier with three straight losses, but if they can get wins against Penn State and Purdue this week, they should be all right, as well.
Wisconsin thrust itself right into the middle of the bubble picture with five straight wins before Saturday’s loss at Michigan State. With back-to-back games against fellow bubble residents Michigan and Minnesota next week, the Badgers could play as big a role in determining the number of Big Ten teams to make it as anyone.
Minnesota travels to Illinois Thursday in a game the Golden Gophers could really use, while Penn State gets a shot at making a big statement with a trip to Columbus tomorrow night.
Michigan’s hopes were dealt a serious blow yesterday, when the Wolverines lost in overtime to Iowa. They now host Purdue Thursday night, where they will be desperate for a win.
Pac-10 Conference:
Locks: Washington, Arizona St., UCLA
Should be in: California
On the bubble: Arizona, USC
Cal has to feel pretty good about its chances right now, and could sow things up with a good week against USC and UCLA this week.
Arizona, like Wisconsin, has been on fire lately to push themselves back into the discussion. The Wildcats, winners of seven in a row before a close loss to arch-rival Arizona State yesterday, has two more chances to pick up signature wins over the next two weeks, at Washington and home against Cal.
USC, on the other hand, could do itself a lot of good to run the table in its final four games. If they can win at Cal Thursday, the last three games (at Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State) should make that doable.
Southeastern Conference:
Locks: LSU
Should be in: None.
On the bubble: Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi St.
Only LSU can truly feel safe about their position at this point, as the Tigers have now won 11 straight in SEC play. Despite a gaudy 21-6 record, Florida’s schedule really lacks heft outside of an early season win at Washington. The Gators have a chance to change that with their last four games, though, beginning tomorrow night in Baton Rouge.
South Carolina has a similar chance to control their own destiny, as they host Kentucky on Wednesday night in one of the week’s bigger bubble games. Speaking of Kentucky, completing the season sweep of Tennessee was a big boost for the Wildcats, and they could really make things easy for the committee with wins against South Carolina and LSU this week. The other big SEC bubble game Wednesday night is the Volunteers hosting Mississippi State, a game the Bulldogs really need.
Atlantic 10:
Locks: Xavier
Should be in: Dayton
On the bubble: Temple, Rhode Island
The Flyers are on the cusp of being a lock, and they will heavily influence the fate of bubble residents Temple and Rhode Island this week. Dayton travels to Rhode Island Wednesday, and a win will in all probability end Rhode Island’s slim tournament hopes.
Temple, meanwhile, has taken care of business against the lower half of the A-10 of late, winning five straight. If they can continue to beat the teams they are supposed to down the stretch, a loss at Dayton Saturday wouldn’t hurt their chances much.
Rhode Island has been the “Just Missed” team of the 08-09 college hoops season, with losses at Duke, at Providence and on a neutral court against Oklahoma State by a combined eight points weighing heavily against them at this point. They, like Temple, have taken care of business against the bottom of the conference, though, and if they can knock off Dayton Wednesday, should end the regular season with a solid 23-8 record.
Mountain West
Locks: None
Should be in: Utah, Brigham Young
On the bubble: San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico
While they’re currently aren’t any locks in the Mountain West, the conference is in great position to put three or four teams in the field of 65. With seven straight wins, and nine in their previous 10, Utah is nearing lock status. They can put themselves there for sure with wins against UNLV or BYU this week. BYU had been on a similar roll before dropping a heart-breaker in Las Vegas Saturday. A win at home against Utah Saturday would likely push them in.
San Diego State could give their profile a big, big boost if they can knock off BYU at home tomorrow night. That would likely get them to 21-7 heading into their regular-season finale against UNLV.
Speaking of the Runnin’ Rebels, wins against Utah and San Diego State would likely push them to lock status; beating one of them would be a big help. After blowing out San Diego State Saturday, New Mexico one big test left against Utah, sandwiched by winnable games against Wyoming and Colorado State. Wins in all three would push Steve Alford’s program to 20-10.
The Best of the Rest:
Locks: Memphis, Gonzaga, Butler
Should be in: Utah State
On the bubble: Davidson, Siena, Creighton, VCU, St. Mary’s
Despite a weak non-conference slate outside of a win over in-state rival Utah, Utah State has run away with the WAC, and has pretty much sown up a bid. If the Aggies can knock off Nevada Saturday, they will move to the lock column.
Davidson really could have used Saturday’s BracketBuster against Butler. They have been tripped up lately by The Citadel and Charleston in Southern Conference play, and are no lock to win their conference tournament. They absolutely must win their final three games in the regular season against three of the four worst teams (Elon, Georgia Southern, UNC Greensboro) in the conference.
Siena probably has the strongest profile of any of these teams, and a loss to Niagara in the conference final likely wouldn’t keep them home – assuming they take care of business against Niagara and Canisius in their final two games of the regular season. St. Mary’s did themselves a ton of good beating Utah State in Saturday’s BracketBuster, as they continue to play without their best player, point guard Patty Mills.
Creighton has now won eight straight, including a BracketBuster win over George Mason, and has put themselves into the at-large conversation. However, it probably is going to take a conference tournament win for them to make it to March Madness, as the Missouri Valley is probably a single-bid league this year.
Same goes for the equally competitive Colonial, where Virginia Commonwealth didn’t do itself any favors with a heart-breaking loss at Nevada in their BracketBuster. The Rams have same nice wins on their resume, including San Diego State and New Mexico, but it will likely take an automatic bid to get them in.