Every season, there’s a substantial, unexpected breakout performer at wide receiver: Steve Smith, Drew Bennett, Anquan Boldin, etc. Wideouts can go from obscure to essential in one short season. They can disappear just as quickly.
No one outside Hempstead had heard of Marques Colston before the former Hofstra player’s blockbuster campaign last season in New Orleans. Will he follow the path of Smith and turn into a juggernaut? Will he run the Boldin route and remain effective but not dominant? Or will be resemble Bennett: a one-year wonder forever trying to duplicate his magical season? Just as important, who will be this season’s Colston?
SECOND GLANCE
With a running-back field deeper than past seasons, it opens the option of drafting a WR in the second round in 10- and 12-team leagues (especially those that start three WRs or have a flex position). But just because you can doesn’t mean you have to stray from past practices. If the right WR isn’t there, don’t force it. Smith and Chad Johnson probably are the only WRs to focus on in Round 2. In other words, don’t pass on Travis Henry to draft Torry Holt, who likely will make it to the third round.
TAKING THE LEAD
Speaking of Holt, remember when he was second fiddle to Isaac Bruce? Holt’s ascension to the top spot on the Rams fantasy food chain was a blurry transition. We can see the same thing happening in Indianapolis.
Marvin Harrison barely outscored teammate Reggie Wayne last season. Harrison went on a tear the final five weeks to make up ground to overtake Wayne the final two weeks of the season.
Harrison likely will go in the second round, but we feel Wayne is a better value in the third.
BIG DROP
We don’t forsee Coltson being able to mimic his rookie success. We still think Colston will be a solid fantasy contributor, but we like other options in the fourth round, when Colston often is chosen: Roy Williams, Javon Walker, Lee Evans and Larry Fitzgerald.
There are a number of later-round WRs we believe will post numbers that exceed their draft position, among them Reggie Brown, Darrell Jackson, Deion Branch and Terry Glenn.
Even later, we like a healthy Donte Stallworth – which is like saying we prefer a slim Oprah (sometimes you get a glimpse, but it never lasts too long). We can assume Stallworth will limp off the field at some point, so an even later flier on Wes Welker is not a bad idea. He’s more of a route-runner than Patriots teammates Stallworth and Randy Moss, making him a dangerous option in the red zone.
Devery Henderson has a legitimate upside. He made a number of big plays for the Saints when Joe Horn was out last season. With Horn (a decent sleeper himself) now in Atlanta, we like Henderson’s potential at the No. 2 WR in a potent offense.
Last time we heard from Bennett, he was a TD machine in Tennessee, and Linkin Park was still cool. That may change this season (at least for Bennett, though we’re rooting for Linkin Park, too). Bennett’s migration to St. Louis puts him in an offense that suits his skills. Watch him push Bruce into fantasy oblivion.
Other late options (we mean Conan late, not Leno late): Jerry Porter, Devin Hester, Brandon Marshall.
ROOKIE ROUTES
First-year receivers normally don’t fare well. That said, we can point to Colston, Boldin and Moss as exceptions to rookie woes. Which leads us to the most celebrated split end since Moss: Calvin Johnson. The Lions offer an opportunity not dissimilar from Moss’ rookie season in Minnesota: veteran QB, experienced WR opposite, and (potentially) a decent running game. We know, we know. It’s the Lions. But even good things happen to bad teams sometimes, even if by accident. Johnson is going too early in redrafts (rounds 6-7).
In addition, be aware of Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meacham and Craig Davis.
Next week: TEs, kickers and defenses.