The Giants haven’t been tested much in the first five weeks, with wins over the Cowboys and four of the worst teams in the league in the Redskins, Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders. So nothing they’ve seen so far has prepared them for the diabolical combination of offense, defense, kick returns and crowd noise they will encounter in the Superdome on Sunday.
It’s a tough decision to lay a full field goal to such a class outfit, but the Giants have some key injury concerns (including Eli Manning) on both sides of the ball, while the Saints are coming off a bye into a game that has a little extra meaning for Jeremy Shockey and Sean Payton.
The pick: Saints –3. This also is the Peter Tocco/Odd Couple pick of the week (2-2).
Bills (+91/2) over JETS: Bills are 1-4, their only win coming against the still-winless Bucs, and they’ve lost 13 of their last 17 games. They’re also decimated with injuries on defense and start a rookie right tackle named Jamon Meredith. Still, this seems like a few too many points for a division rivalry that sometimes produces some odd results.
Chiefs (+61/2) over REDSKINS: Every Redskins game has been decided by six points or less, including their two home wins, 9-7 over the Rams, and 16-13 over the Bucs, two teams that are still winless. The 0-5 Chiefs had a near-miss vs. the Cowboys last week, and the combo of Todd Haley and Matt Cassel are getting ready to win one soon.
Texans (+5) over BENGALS: Cincinnati has won three on a row by three points each, on last-minute drives by Carson Palmer. So this number’s a little high, even if the Houston trio of Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton have yet to get it together.
Browns (+14) over STEELERS: Pittsburgh has won 16 of the last 17 against the Browns, including the last 11. Taking a shot at the huge number because the Browns showed some grit in a 6-3 road win against the Bills, combined with the expected wet conditions. If Eric Mangini’s offense gets lucky just a little, we could get a backdoor here.
Ravens (+3) over VIKINGS: New Ravens center Matt Birk, who came over from the Vikings, should be able to give Ray Lewis and Co. some valuable information about his old team’s offense. Brett Favre won’t have smooth sailing forever.
JAGUARS (-91/2) over Rams: When the Rams take the field Sunday, it’ll be more than a calendar year since their last victory. And their 0-15 mark in that time has come with an average margin of defeat of 17.5 points. So, yes, give almost double digits with a Jags team coming off a 41-0 loss.
Panthers (-31/2) over BUCCANEERS: Here comes that hook again. Lost with the Panthers by a half-point last week vs. the Redskins, but they did get their first win of the season. In recent years, they have been very streaky, and if this is the start of one, get on board now.
PACKERS (-131/2) over Lions: Detroit got the cover as big home dogs vs. the Steelers, but the last time on the road gave up 48 points to the Bears. The Packers had the bye week to try to shore up their pass blocking, and if they did that, Aaron Rodgers will have a huge day here.
Eagles (-14) over RAIDERS: You weren’t considering picking the Raiders, were you? Donovan McNabb threw for 264 yards and 3 TDs vs. the Bucs in his first game back, and the Eagles are averaging 31.8 ppg. Most interesting question about the Raiders is, when will the cops come for Tom Cable?
SEAHAWKS (-3) over Cardinals: When Matt Hasselbeck plays, Seahawks are an extremely tough out at home. Though the Cards did beat the Texans last week, they did blow all of a 21-0 lead, and there’s definitely something missing from last year’s Super Bowl mojo.
PATRIOTS (-91/2) over Titans: Smarting from the loss in Denver, the Patriots will get back in gear against a Titans defense that is missing top cornerback Cortland Finnegan and ranks 31st against the pass.
FALCONS (-31/2) over Bears: The Falcons’ 45-10 win at San Francisco might be the most startling result of the season thus far, a manly outcome against a tough, up-and-coming team in its house. This will be even tougher in prime time, but Atlanta has more offensive weapons than do the Bears.
MONDAY NIGHT
Broncos (+31/2) over CHARGERS: The surprise 5-0 Broncos are going to come back to reality at some point. But with Kyle Orton throwing 63 percent completions and a 7-1 touchdown/interception ratio, there’s no reason they can’t stay within a field goal in San Diego.
BEST BETS: Jaguars, Texans, Eagles.
LAST WEEK: 7-7 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.