ST. LOUIS — Happy Memorial Day. Let’s kick things off with this week’s Pop Quiz question, from Gary Mintz of South Huntington:
In the 2013 film “The Heat,” Mullins (Melissa McCarthy) wears a T-shirt bearing the logo of a famous Triple-A team. Name the team.
OK, it’s time for my eight annual “Turnaround Team” poll. Since Memorial Day is baseball’s “time to get serious” juncture, we take a look at teams that have flipped their results from last year — from bad to good or vice versa — and try to determine whether these flips are legitimate or just blips on the road to stability.
Here’s how it works:
I started by throwing out the Diamondbacks, because they finished 81-81 last year. You can’t flip from .500.
In a similar vein, as we began action Monday, there were two teams exactly at .500 – the Rangers and the Nationals, both at 25-25. So we throw them out, too.
Of the 27 remaining teams, there are six in the “Winners turned losers” category — over .500 last year, under .500 right now — and six in the “Losers turned winners” group (the reverse, obviously). A total of 12 turnaround teams.
That leaves us with 15 “static” teams, clubs that have carried over last year’s positivity or negativity into this season. That is our polling group. Of those 15 teams — St. Louis, Oakland, Atlanta, Detroit, the Dodgers, Baltimore, the Yankees, San Diego, the Mets, Philadelphia, the Cubs, Houston, the White Sox, Minnesota and Seattle — I spoke with officials from 13 of them and asked them this question: “Which of the turnaround teams will finish above .500, and which below .500?”
The number of “Above .500” votes gives us our confidence rating in each team, so we get a rudimentary sense of what the industry thinks.
Last year, we had just seven turnaround teams, and the industry did pretty well, though not perfect. The consensus thought was the Red Sox and Indians were real, and they proved to be, but the majority also thought the Pirates would sink back under .500 and they wound up posting their first winning record since 1992 and made the playoffs. Few bought what the Rockies were selling, and they were correct; do you even remember that Colorado held a 27-23 record last Memorial Day?
On the other side, most foresaw the Angels climbing back over .500 (they didn’t), most correctly buried the Brewers and a tad over 50 percent thought the Dodgers would rebound, which they did with a historic run of dominance into the playoffs.
OK, that’s more than enough of an explanation/introduction, right? Let’s get into the poll.
Winners turned losers
Boston (97-65 last year, 20-29 this year): The Red Sox lead this pack with an 84.6 percent confidence rating — 11 of 13 respondents thought they would climb out of this funk and get back over .500. One voter thought the Red Sox’s young players like Jackie Bradley Jr. and Xander Bogaerts would grow more comfortable and get better, while another voter cited the team’s experience in grinding through a long season.
Kansas City (86-76 last year, 24-25 this year): The Royals own a 75 percent confidence rating, as three of four polled thought they’d put up a second straight winning season after being perennial losers from 2004 through 2012. Why were only four people asked about the Royals? Because I reach out to people over a week’s period, and the Royals spent the past week flirting with .500. On some days, they weren’t on this list. Anyway, a belief in Kansas City’s pitching has the Royals here.
Cincinnati (90-72 last year, 22-26 this year): The Reds own a 69.2 percent confidence rating, as nine of 13 folks saw them climbing over .500. The return of closer Aroldis Chapman from the disabled list was cited, as well as Jay Bruce’s getting back on the field and the hope that Joey Votto will shortly do the same, though there are some concerns on that front.
Tampa Bay (92-71 last year, 23-28 this year): Winners of four straight, the Rays have a 46.2 percent confidence rating, as six of the 13 polled saw them continuing this surge. Some of the naysayers questioned their offense, while others wondered whether David Price would get traded as a sign of surrender and deplete the pitching. The supporters pointed to manager Joe Maddon’s ability to guide his team through rough times and the hoped-for improved health of the pitching staff; Alex Cobb already is back, and Jeremy Hellickson could return in about a month.
Pittsburgh (94-68 last year, 22-27 this year): Just like last year, there’s little faith in the Pirates, who drew a 23.1 percent confidence rating (three of 13). Of course, last year, Pittsburgh had a winning record. One member of our poll group mentioned how heavily the Pirates relied on their bullpen for last year’s success, and how that can take a toll. So far, the Bucs’ starting rotation has presented the larger headache, but there’s plenty more to come.
Cleveland (92-70 last year, 24-27 this year): In all, five of last year’s 10 playoff teams are on this list, which is pretty wacky. And the Indians generated the least confidence of all. Just 15.4 percent (two of 13) envisioned them getting back over .500. Simply not enough talent, most people thought.
Losers turned winners
Angels (78-84 last year, 28-21 this year): The Angels scored a perfect 100 percent confidence rating, with 13 of 13 polled believing they’re too legit to quit. The resurgence of Albert Pujols and the expected return of Josh Hamilton from the disabled list should help Mike Scioscia’s group stay afloat, folks thought.
San Francisco (76-86 last year, 32-18 this year): The Giants, too, have 100 percent support from this voting body, as 13 of 13 see them staying on this side of .500. These guys quite simply look like a very good team, everyone agreed, and general manager Brian Sabean has a knack for improving the team in July, too.
Milwaukee (74-88 last year, 30-21 this year): The Brewers, leading the National League Central, have an 84.6 percent confidence rating, with 11 of 13 polled believing they can keep this going. A shutdown bullpen, led by the return of Francisco Rodriguez, has helped the Brewers get here, and another former Met, fiery center fielder Carlos Gomez, has performed so well offensively that he has covered up for some of his underwhelming teammates.
Colorado (74-88 last year, 27-23 this year): Yes, the Rockies have the identical record after 50 games this season as they did a year ago, when they finished 74-88. Nevertheless, there is far more faith this year: a 76.9 percent confidence rating, with 10 of 13 believing in their rise. Why? A killer offense, an improved pitching staff and the existence of impressive prospects Eddie Butler and Jon Gray on the horizon.
Toronto (78-88 last year, 29-22 this year): The American League East leaders have a 61.5 percent confidence rating, with eight of 13 respondents supporting their cause. To be honest, the confidence in the Jays grew as they kept winning this week (they currently own a six-game winning streak). They are improved all over, with last year’s additions Melky Cabrera and Mark Buehrle particularly thriving. Skeptics wondered whether the pitching would eventually peter out.
Miami (62-100 last year, 26-25 this year): The Marlins, like the Pirates in the “Winners turned Losers” group, have a 23.1 percent confidence rating, with just three of 13 voters thinking they can keep this up. The primary reason for the pessimism was rather sensible: Ace Jose Fernandez is out for the year due to Tommy John surgery. The few advocates thought Miami had enough talent even without Fernandez to make a real run at a winning record.
Your Pop Quiz answer is the Pawtucket Red Sox. If you have a tidbit that correlates baseball with popular culture, please send it to me at kdavidoff@nypost.com.