‘I’m running like I’m 20 points behind and I’ll continue to run like I’m 20 points be hind,” says Pat Toomey, the presumptive GOP nominee for Senate in Pennsylvania — who in fact now leads Sen. Arlen Specter 45 percent to 31 percent among likely voters in the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll.
Specter, who switched parties last year for fear of losing a Republican primary to Toomey, still has to finish off a challenger from the left, Rep. Joe Sestak, in the May 18 Democratic primary. Meanwhile, as the nation turns sour on the Obama agenda that Specter has helped enact, Toomey’s been charging up — six months ago, he was down eight points.
Campaigning across the state, Toomey says he’s hearing time and again that it’s Washington’s “lurch to the left” that “Pennsylvanians don’t like.” The bailouts and ObamaCare are both flashpoints. The effort to pass the “card-check” bill to ease union organizing is a loser for Specter, too, even in this union-friendly state. Above all, Toomey reports, voters are asking the government, Why aren’t you fo cused on the economy?
Much as with the Massachusetts voters who sent Scott Brown to the Senate, Pennsylvanians are unhappy with one-party rule. “People are looking for balance” and for some serious “fiscal discipline,” Toomey notes.
And they’re unhappy with President Obama. In February of last year, the F&M poll showed that 55 percent thought Obama was doing a good or excellent job, while 36 percent said he was doing a fair or poor job. In the latest poll, that job-approval rating had essentially reversed: 38 percent view him positively and 61 percent negatively.
More important, 40 percent say they’re financially worse off than a year ago, versus just 10 percent who say they’re better off. And 49 percent don’t think they’ll be better off a year from now.
The poll’s director, G. Terry Madonna, tied Obama’s decline to the those numbers: “The data in the poll tells us that people are deeply concerned about their personal finances and about the health of the economy,” he said.
He’s seconded by former Sen. Rick Santorum — who reached out to Democratic voters through social issues but who agrees that jobs and the economy are key now. “I think Pat Toomey must emphasize jobs first and foremost,” Santorum says.
Santorum also notes some Toomey advantages: Toomey “was a small business owner, and he understands more than most what makes a business-friendly environment that creates jobs. As a congressman, [Toomey] established a strong record of fiscal discipline and how critical it is to keep taxes low . . . and we can’t forget that Sen. Specter was one of the pivotal votes that allowed the $800 billion stimulus bill to pass.
“Specter had a chance to put the brakes on this reckless stimulus plan — but rather chose to abdicate that responsibility and be the key vote to move that legislation forward. Pat would be well-served to remind voters as often as possible of his opponent’s very weak record on the economy.”
But the economy and jobs actually comes in a close second behind health care as the top issue for voters in the F&M poll — which is just fine with Toomey, because he’s been railing against the Democratic approach for months.
One of his regular lines is a question: “Why is it you can buy car insurance from a little green lizard, but you can’t buy health insurance from a guy in Ohio?” He wants to see health insurers compete across state lines, along with other modest reforms to give people more options than under the current system.
Toomey still has to get his name-recognition numbers up — but his strength now is the fact that Specter has held the seat for 30 years. The F&M poll reports that six in 10 voters think it’s time for a new senator.
Last April, Specter thought he was doing the safe thing by becoming a Democrat. But it increasingly looks like his time may just be up. awschachter@nypost.com