Robinson Cano has done as fine a job staying on script this season as hitting a baseball.
He has followed the playbook expertly of, at the very least, creating the illusion he is willing to walk away from the Yankees: 1) Make it clear through pals there will be no hometown discount. 2) Insist it is a business decision. 3) Drive home that it is a business decision by showing as little outward emotion as possible for the franchise.
The idea, obviously, is to unease the Yankees so they offer beyond their current comfort levels because steps 1-2-3 have them convinced he is going to depart.
But I do think this is a script. I believe Cano wants to stay, knows he is in a city, organization and stadium that fits him well, recognizes his best chance to break out as a star (which he badly wants) is by remaining tied to New York and Yankees pinstripes, and understands the best post-career life comes if he retires as a great lifetime Yankee.
Does this mean he won’t leave? No. We are surprised annually by how far a team or three is willing to go in the offseason. Already on Saturday the Giants left many in the industry surprised they gave so much to Hunter Pence (five years, $90 million) to keep him from being a free agent.
The industry is flush with cash and remember: 1) The new national TV contract goes into effect for 2014. Each organization is about to receive about an additional $20 million-$25 million (which means any organization essentially could take this new cash influx and pay Cano with it). 2) There are now caps on what could be spent in the draft and on young international players. Thus, teams have money and are looking for places to spend it. That is one reason why you see so many teams being bolder, for example, with older players becoming available from the Far East and Cuba, where there are no restrictions.
So if the Yankees never go beyond, say, $175 million and another organization bids $225 million, I don’t think Cano will leave $50 million on the table. So one game ongoing in the industry is trying to identify which franchise might break out for Cano.
For months, officials have insisted the free-spending Dodgers would not be big bidders because they actually do have some financial limitations and still have another huge contract to do for Clayton Kershaw and possibly one for Hanley Ramirez, too.
Because of stipulations within the sale from Sam Zell to Tom Ricketts, the Cubs are not yet able to spend big. The Angels are reeling from signing Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. People I trust do not believe the Nationals or Tigers will break away from the pact for Cano.
For now, I think the team to watch is the Rangers. Texas lost the World Series in 2010 and in devastating style in ’11. In 2012, the Rangers collapsed from nearly sure division champs to one-and-done wild cards. This year, despite a late surge, they are in danger of missing the playoffs altogether because of a second-half swoon. In a football-mad state, to maintain strong interest, would Texas make a big offseason splash to change the subject if there is another unhappy ending?
In a radio interview Thursday, Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said of reacting to the bad conclusions: “I think you’ve got to be able to step back and make evaluations on more than just that, but we’re human. It’s going to factor in somewhat.”
The Rangers have become renowned as big-game hunters, so think of this scenario:
They sign Cano, shift Ian Kinsler to first base/DH, stick long-term with Elvis Andrus at short and use Jurickson Profar as the lure to land David Price in a trade from Tampa Bay. Getting the biggest free agent (Cano) and the biggest trade piece (Price) would go a long way to changing the subject from bad endings.
Still, the initial edge belongs to the Yankees, at least that is what every executive I have spoken with believes. One said he thinks Cano asked for $300 million ($310 million, actually) because “the huge victory is to get in the 200 millions, and so you inflate high to start negotiations.”
The Yankees have made it sound as if they will not go much north of Mark Teixeira’s eight-year, $180 million pact. But they could get to eight years at $200 million, perhaps. Maybe they could even offer options for a ninth and 10th season based on, say, Cano reaching a certain amount of top-five MVP finishes along the way.
For now, though, Cano is staying on script, seeing if he could indeed push the Yankees higher and higher.