Sports

Why Argentina will beat Germany (Hint: Messi helps)

Shep Messing, who was a teammate of Pele on the New York Cosmos and goalkeeper on the 1972 Olympic squad, is giving Post readers his insights and opinions periodically during the World Cup. Messing also serves as MSG Network’s New York Red Bulls analyst and is calling World Cup games for ESPN Radio. As told to Brian Lewis.

Count me as one of the people surprised at the whipping Brazil took in the semifinal. But I think we have an intriguing dramatic World Cup final. It was maybe expected by some, but not expected by most people. But that’s not a bad World Cup final to see: Germany vs. Argentina.

For me, the question has a lot of different layers. The No. 1 question is which Germany shows up? I always go back in my mind and try to consider who you played at the time everybody was jumping on your bandwagon. In their case, Belgium and the U.S.

Then look at Germany-Brazil. Was Germany that outstanding, or was this a Brazil that for the last three weeks was just waiting for a moment to collapse? It’s hard to measure.

It was an unbelievable game for Germany, but it was the only one they played like that. I think the last time Germany scored seven goals was against me in the Olympics.

They struggled at times in the World Cup. Give coach Joachim Loew credit for putting Philipp Lahm back on defense at right back — that’s made a huge difference. Full credit to Loew. They struggled with that back four and with Lahm in midfield.

Are they good? Absolutely. But left back is still a question mark for me with Benedikt Hoewedes.

I love goalkeeping, and I love Manuel Neuer. But how he’s coming off his line, how he’s coming out of his area — throw the Brazil game out, because that’s an aberration — is risky.

I look at him like that Russian that Rocky had to fight. But even with his size to his athleticism, that’s a dangerous way to have to play to provide cover for your back four. Will he get away with it again for 90 minutes against Argentina? I think if he has to come outside of his area, he’s going to be in trouble.

I love Germany, and I love Neuer. But I still think Argentina can find way to win this game.

They watched the Brazil game, too. They know they can’t let the German midfield have the ball like that with all the time and space or they’ll be vulnerable.

Argentina knows it. They’re going to play a very similar style to how they played against Holland: deny passing lanes, step up in the midfield, pressure.

We’re not used to seeing Argentina play like this. But especially with Angel di Maria out, they’re a tactically defensive team, get the ball to Lionel Messi and hope for production. But we saw the way they played against Holland, and it will be effective.

I’ve come to believe that whatever everybody else in the world believes, go for the other one. Everybody is going with Germany; I’m going the other way.

I keep coming back to no European team has ever won a World Cup in South or North America. This Argentine team got where they want to be, which was in the final. They’re going to be tough.

They’ve got Pablo Zabaleta back there on defense. Javier Mascherano is like a pit bull in midfield. This is a team that Germany is not going to run through.

Defensively, this one’s going to be a battle. I don’t think we’re seeing eight goals in this one. My hope, like all the fans, is that it’s a great game. I think in the end, the defensive pressure by Argentina in the midfield against Germany is going to interrupt their flow. And if it comes down to an individual player making a play, my money’s on Messi.