No. 1 Louisville (33-5) vs. No. 9 Wichita St. (30-8)
Tonight, 6:09 p.m., CBS | Line: Louisville -10 1/2
FRONTCOURT
The Cardinals have one of the rarest and most-valued commodities in college basketball — a big man with a skill set. Gorgui Dieng can change the game on both ends. Chane Behanan was the Most Outstanding Player of the 2012 West Region, which means he’s capable of dominating. Cleanthony Early and Carl Hall give Wichita State as good a pair of versatile forwards as there is in today’s game. Early is a matchup nightmare because he can knock down the 3 and attack the rim.
EDGE: CARDINALS
BACKCOURT
In Peyton Siva, the Cardinals have another one of the rarest and most valued commodities in college basketball — a smart, experienced point guard. Russ Smith can score points in bunches. Wichita State’s Malcolm Armstead could very well be the key to the game if he can handle the press. Tekele Cotton is a nasty defender who will try to attack Smith. Wichita State became a better offensive team when Ron Baker returned in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament from a foot injury.
EDGE: CARDINALS
BENCH
Louisville’s depth took a serious blow with the injury to Kevin Ware. Coach Rick Pitino will use Luke Hancock more in the depleted backcourt. Walk-on Tim Henderson might have to play some important minutes. The Cards are stacked in the front court. Fiery power forward Montrezl Harrell could be the X-factor. Fred VanVleet might sound like a Dr. Seuss character, but he gives the Shockers another terrific ball handler/press breaker. Ehimen Orukpe will bang inside with Dieng.
COACHING
Rick Pitino was the first coach to take three schools to the Final Four. He is going for his second NCAA title in his seventh Final Four appearance. Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall is in his first Final Four. It probably won’t be his last.
EDGE: CARDINALS
INTANGIBLES
Louisville went this far last season and wants more. Ware will be sitting on the bench providing all the emotional energy possible. But Wichita State, the most physical team here, has been hearing for three weeks it doesn’t belong.
EVEN
Lenn Robbins’’ Prediction: Louisville 77, Wichita St. 70
No. 4 Michigan (30-7) vs. No. 4 Syracuse (30-9)
Tonight, 8:49 p.m., CBS | Line: Michigan -2
FRONTCOURT
No player has seen his stock rise more in this tournament than Michigan’s 6-foot-10 freshman forward Mitch McGary, who after scoring in double figures seven times all season, has averaged a double-double in the NCAA Tournament (17.5 points, 11.5 rebounds). If versatile 6-foot-6 forward Glenn Robinson III makes himself at home at the high post, he could unlock Syracuse’s 2-3 zone defense. C.J. Fair is emerging as one of college basketball’s most well-rounded forwards. Bayside bomber James Southerland is the X-Factor. If he is making his 3-pointers, Syracuse goes from being a mediocre team to a good one.
EDGE: MICHIGAN
BACKCOURT
If McGary wears the rising stock hat, Michigan’s Trey Burke wears the fedora. His range and ability to heat up make him the player ’Cuse must check. Tim Hardaway Jr. fills a stat sheet and at 6-foot-6, he can nullify the advantage the 6-foot-5 Michael Carter-Williams has had in this tournament. Nik Stauskas is a one-trick pony and must make his 3s (he was 6-of-6 against Florida) to be effective. Carter-Williams has taken his game to a higher level but must keep his emotions in check. Brandon Triche, a four-year starter for the Orange, is fully aware of the opportunity at hand.
EVEN
BENCH
Even though a lot of bench players got time for Michigan in this tournament because of blowouts, the Wolverines’ bench only got 26 points and 26 rebounds. The reserves are young, two freshmen and a redshirt freshman. Syracuse, on the other hand, got 45 points and 40 rebounds from its reserves. Baye Keita is as vastly improved a player as Jim Boeheim has coached. Trevor Cooney can provide an outside shooting boost. Jerami Grant is another perfect back line 2-3 defender.
EDGE: SYRACUSE
COACHING
After toiling at smaller schools for years, Michigan’s John Beilein finally has gotten a chance at a big-time program. He has proven what those of us who saw him coach at LeMoyne, Canisius, Richmond and West Virginia know — he is a master at getting players to make the extra pass which leads to symphonic offense. Jim Boeheim is a Hall of Famer, a national championship coach and is in his fourth Final Four.
EDGE: SYRACUSE
INTANGIBLES
After rallying from 14 down in the final minutes to force overtime against Kansas, the Wolverines have that team-of-destiny vibe. In Trey Burke, the know they have a player with the guts to take the big shot. After the loss to Georgetown in the regular-season finale, the Orange were dead men walking. They’ve made the most of a second life.
EVEN
Lenn Robbins’ Predictions: Michigan 83, Syracuse 70