Let’s play junior detective and see if we can figure out what the Yankees might be trying to do in the trade market.
First, you do not have to be much of an investigator to note Brian Cashman isn’t playing coy. The Yankees GM has been overt in saying he wants to make trades. Now. He sees the flaws in a teetering team that fell to .500 Tuesday. He has been aggressively calling around, according to outside executives, informing clubs of players that interest the Yankees and to please contact him if and when they are ready to move.
Cashman also has acknowledged multiple areas of need. However, as desperate as the Yankees are for an impact bat (specifically one with power), so is just about every contender. And you might find a Yeti before uncovering the species in this market.
There are enticing relievers. But the Yankees have prioritized a starter and — it just so happens — the inventory is greater than normal, to the point that personnel men tell me they see trades coming earlier in July than is standard.
So now the tough assignment: Whom? We should begin with what matters most to the Yankees.
For example, they would like to acquire a starter for more than just this season. It doesn’t mean they would shun a Jason Hammel (a free agent after this year) if the price were right. Just that they know their rotation issues will persist beyond 2014 (Hiroki Kuroda probably will retire from the major leagues of at least North America, while Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia will remain physical risks, etc.).
The Yankees also favor strikeout pitchers for the reasons everyone likes strikeout pitchers, but also to protect a dubious defense. If they don’t hit it, you don’t have to field it.
Believing the person can handle New York and the AL East would be a plus — but often a hard-to-know plus. Would the Yankees like Jeff Samardzija? You bet. Don’t forget Jim Hendry — one of Cashman’s most influential lieutenants — drafted Samardzija in 2006 and bought him out of pursuing the NFL (Samardzija was a Notre Dame wide receiver) with a $10 million bonus.
But after two brilliant months to open the year, Samardzija had a 5.45 ERA and .879 opponents’ OPS in six June starts.
One AL East executive (not from the Yankees) said, “He is very good, but he is being marketed as great and he is not great. I think you have to add something to his ERA going from the NL Central to the AL East, and he has never been a starting pitcher in a pennant race. The Cubs want an ace return [in a trade], and I don’t think you are getting an ace.”
The executive also said he saw zero chance of keeping Samardzija out of the free-agent market after the 2015 season.
David Price, also not a free agent until after 2015, would be ideal, but Tampa a) probably doesn’t want to trade him in the division and b) probably doesn’t see the Yankees possessing the minor league assets to obtain Price. Jonathon Niese is signed reasonably through 2018 and has some Andy Pettitte about him. Bartolo Colon has a reasonable deal through next year, and already has shown he can pitch well for the Yankees. But are the Mets really going to help the Yankees’ playoff chances?
So where do we go from here? Four thoughts:
1. Ian Kennedy, Padres: Maybe this falls into the “Javier Vazquez don’t invite them back” realm. But the Yankees took him with their first pick in 2006, so we know they like him. He is not a free agent until after next season. He averages nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings. His peripheral numbers are better than a 6-9 record with a 3.87 ERA would indicate. Plus, San Diego is open for business.
The Yankees would love a shot at Tyson Ross, but word is the Padres are not looking to trade high-end players with as little service time as Ross has.
2. Cole Hamels, Phillies: There has been a lot of Cliff Lee speculation. But Lee has been out since May 18 with an elbow injury, is due back around the All-Star break and turns 36 in August. And, oh yeah, depending on whether he vests his option, Lee will either be paid $37.5 million for just 2015 or $52.5 million for 2015-16. He has a lot of Sabathia about him — an expensive workhorse lefty who won a Cy Young with the Indians who might be a physical calamity moving forward. If he just becomes a salary dump by Philadelphia, then perhaps the Yankees will wait with open arms and run the risk.
But Hamels is the prize if Philadelphia ever goes for the complete rebuild. He is still just 30, signed for five years beyond 2014 (assuming his 2019 option kicks in) for roughly $110 million. Hamels strikes out a batter per inning and has proven he can handle a tough Northeast city and the postseason. But if he goes on the market, the bidding will be strong. Will the Yankees have enough to get him?
3. Zach McAllister, Indians: Perhaps Justin Masterson is more likely to go should the Indians deem themselves out of contention, because he is a free agent after this season. Masterson limits homers, produces strikeouts and his ERA (5.16) is inflated by having arguably the majors’ worst defense behind him. All of that could be said of McAllister, too, who has gone back to the minors after a DL stint and seems to be pitching better. Danny Salazar, another strikeout artist, also has been pitching better at Triple-A after a disastrous major league run this year.
Keep in mind something that matters at this time of year: This Yankees front office and its Indians counterpart have done several trades, such as the Yankees’ ill-fated acquisition of Austin Kearns in August 2010 for McAllister.
4. Wade Miley, Diamondbacks: One wild card in this trade season is new Diamondbacks baseball czar Tony La Russa. Just how much is he ready to blow up this Arizona squad? He would prefer to move a bunch of bad contracts, which puts Brandon McCarthy more in play. But the Yankees are going to want to shoot higher. Miley is homer prone. But when he has his heavy 94-mph sinker and swing-and-miss slider working, Miley is a very good major league starter.