EDMONTON, Alberta, Canada — If attendance is the most obvious measurement of fan interest, the decline in post-Olympic business feared by many NHL ownership types — who somehow believe it is in their best interests to continue to play games rather than in the Games — has not materialized.
The league generates revenue apart from gate receipts, but even as TV and sponsorship money increases, ticket sales remain the NHL’s lifeblood and, as such, the best analytical device with which to analyze the impact of the winter hiatus.
We did our own study of six teams out of the playoff picture, five of whom had their fate sealed before the schedule was interrupted Feb. 8. If fans were inclined to turn away after a three-week break from their routine, it stands to reason they would stay away from teams presenting deficient products.
But no, not so. The Islanders, whose ship was sinking even before John Tavares went down with a season-ending injury in Sochi, averaged 14,265 at the Coliseum for their first seven games after the Olympics, an increase of 318 poor souls a game who apparently weren’t looking to get reimbursed the same way Charles Wang has in all the years he has owned the team.
The Sabres, who morphed into Team Turmoil the moment slow-footed enforcer John Scott became a household name during the exhibition season, sold out four of their first five games upon resumption of the schedule, the average of 18,998 exceeding the season average by 449.
In Edmonton, where they are engaged in their annual pursuit of a quality lottery pick, the Oilers went 9-for-9 in capacity crowds, getting 13 more folks per game into their own old barn than they had before the break.
The Canucks have been an unscripted train wreck, floundering badly while experiencing all of the backstage drama attendant to a John Tortorella team, yet the fans continue to fill the building — six straight capacity crowds in a season in which the building officially has been filled for every game.
The Candy Canes are missing the playoffs yet again with a nondescript bunch of athletes, but their average attendance of 15,726 following the Olympics is greater by 306 than the season average.
In Florida, there’s the exception to the rule, just the way that dysfunctional franchise always has been an exception since moving from Miami to Sunrise, that site where the Panthers couldn’t get people to come watch Pavel Bure on a regular basis when the Russian Rocket was the league’s most electrifying player.
The Panthers drew an average of 12,499 to their first eight matches after the Olympics as opposed to their season average of 14,661, a drop of 2,162 that’s significant enough to suggest fans simply lost interest in a poor product. This likely would have happened without the break, anyway.
The NHL, meanwhile, is not at all ready to declare the Olympics had no negative impact on business. Oddly enough, deputy commissioner Bill Daly was not ready to take Slap Shots’ word for it.
“There are lots of different metrics that are available and all have to be looked at,” Daly wrote in an email exchange on Friday. “We won’t likely be in a position to evaluate all of the data, much less draw any conclusions, until the end of the regular season.”
There may be reasons not to send NHL athletes to South Korea next time. Potential injuries are an issue. The condensed schedule does no favors for anyone, including the season subscribers who often have to bear the burden of accommodating three or four games jammed into a single week.
But for the most part, good teams before the break are good teams now. Some have improved and others have faded, but that’s an annual function of a season, not unique to Olympic years.
Fans came back to the rink after being locked out three times in 19 years, once for an entire season. It shouldn’t be much of a surprise they came back after three weeks. Those owners who oppose continued participation will have to search for metrics other than attendance to cite while making their case.
The NHL and NHLPA are working cooperatively, we’re told, on devising a formula for 2013-14 revenue that would ensure the 2014-15 cap is set at $70 million.
The PA, meanwhile, is in the process of deciding how and when to receive and allocate the $300 million of transition “make-whole” payments arising from the settlement of Owners’ Lockout III.
Though players are expected to make the final call on the issue no later than this summer, an informed party advised Slap Shots the entire $300M likely is to be distributed only to those athletes who were under contract for the 2012-13 lockout season and who received just 58.5 percent of their salary (before escrow). Player agents were notified last week in a memo from PA executive director Don Fehr that the transition payments, due in three equal installments of $100M plus interest after each of the 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, “will be paid in full without regard to escrow or player compensation.”
The PA also was able to gain approximately a 1.6-percent return per player on escrow deductions previously make for 2012-13, following completion of the accounting reconciliation process through which the union won a number of challenges on reported player costs and revenue.
Now that Chris Kreider is down, you get the idea that Rob McClanahan would pass for a power forward if he still played for the Rangers.
Vincent Lecavalier is demoted to the fourth line in Philly, which begs the question, how and when are the Flyers going to get him on LTI?
Bobby Ryan’s season-ending injury sure prevents USA Hockey from having to embarrass itself by inviting the winger to the World Championships, doesn’t it?