INDIANAPOLIS — If you’re hoping to judge the top quarterbacks in this year’s NFL draft by their arm strength this weekend, prepare to be disappointed.
Continuing a recent trend, most of the prime passing prospects appear likely to pass on throwing instead at the scouting combine that begins Wednesday at Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium with the arrival of the first wave of the 335 players invited.
Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M and Central Florida’s late-rising Blake Bortles are widely considered the top three quarterbacks available this year, but only Bortles has confirmed he will throw in Indianapolis when that position holds its on-field workouts Sunday.
Manziel is a definite “no” (he will wait for his own personal pro day in Texas in late March), and Bridgewater refuses to say if he will throw here — a sign to many NFL talent evaluators he will join Manziel in sitting out.
The hesitancy to throw at the combine even extends to the second tier of passing prospects this year, as both Fresno State’s Derek Carr and A.J. McCarron have hinted they will wait until personal or school pro days instead.
What’s going on here?
According to Robert Griffin III, who didn’t throw at the 2012 combine but still ended up going No. 2 overall, quarterbacks (or, more likely, their agents) see the potential negatives far outweighing the positives for passers with a successful college track record.
“You don’t go somewhere and run a game plan, you never practice, and you throw to guys you don’t practice with in an environment you’re not prepared for,” Griffin said at the time when asked why he didn’t throw at his combine.
Though most of the class last year chose to throw, quarterbacks declining to do so at the combine isn’t exactly a surprise.
Of the past four passers who ended up going No. 1 overall (Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck), only Newton took the field in Indianapolis. And Newton struggled, which — even though it didn’t cost him the top spot in the draft — has made him something of a cautionary tale among agents.
That’s too bad for the NFL Network, draft fanatics and scouts hoping for another look at a deep quarterback class in a year when five teams in the top eight draft positions have a glaring need at that position.
Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean this year’s combine will lack for intriguing storylines, though — not with potential No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney’s desire being questioned and everyone getting their first look at Missouri defensive end Michael Sam since Sam’s revelation he is gay.
Clowney is vowing to dominate the weightlifting and on-field workouts at the combine, and the gifted defensive lineman from South Carolina probably needs to do so to quiet all the anonymous sniping from scouts about his work ethic.
Sam, meanwhile, will get the chance to change the subject from his sexuality to his football skills. The week is shaping up to be crucial for Sam in his bid to convince scouts he isn’t the “tweener” — too small to play defensive end but too slow to play linebacker — that so many analysts have labeled him.
There also will be plenty of talent at other positions on display when the on-field workouts begin Saturday morning, considering NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock is labeling this “the deepest and best draft class that I’ve seen in probably 10 years.”
“I had one GM tell me the other day that having a top-20 pick this year is very similar to having a top-10 pick last year,” Mayock said on a conference call with reporters Tuesday. “It’s that good.”