Granted, it may seem hard to believe in New York that intriguing NBA storylines exist beyond who will coach the Knicks and where Carmelo Anthony will play next season. Those stories involve the playoffs and even the too-often-ignored other NBA team that calls New York home.
1. The Threepeat-seeking Heat’s vulnerability
Only five teams have threepeated. Phil Jackson’s Lakers were the last (2000-02). Jackson’s Bulls with Michael Jordan did it twice (1991-93 and 1996-98). The Celtics won eight straight titles from 1959-66. And the Minneapolis Lakers did it (1952-54) when white socks were considered appropriate with blue suits.
Now it’s two-time defending champ Miami’s turn. The Heat went to the Finals three straight years, playing 67 extra games. That wears on you. No wonder Dwyane Wade rested nearly 30 games.
“The body starts to feel it. That’s 300-plus games plus the 82-90 [including preseason] you play this season. That’s a lot of basketball,” said one Western Conference scout.
“They are fortunate and vulnerable at the same time,” said one Eastern Conference assistant coach. “It is a weak East and Indiana has tripped up. But human nature takes over and all the games and stress to their bodies and minds takes a toll.”
2. Should we cancel Indianapolis hotel reservations for the Finals?
“Yeah, because there’s a body of work where they struggled,” said an opposing GM. “They have to find their groove in the first round that could possibly carry over, so that’s the benefit that they get Atlanta. That helps. But there’s concern.”
Some scouts and opposing execs offer different theories. Roy Hibbert is fragile. Lance Stephenson started a personal payday push. The offense went somewhere south of Hell. Chemistry took a hit with the Evan Turner-Danny Granger trade. Paul George had personal problems.
“I just thought they got off track,” one scout said. “George, the second half of the year was carrying the load by himself. He’s a jump shooter and jump shooters go hot and cold.”
3. Can the Spurs make another run or just cash Social Security checks?
The Spurs still have a bitter taste from last year’s Finals when they fumbled away a title. But Gregg Popovich has done another masterful job with his graybeards. The key vets — Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili — are performing like, well, Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. Marco Belinelli was a great pickup and guys like Patty Mills exceeded expectations.
A major theme for the Spurs will be staying fresh. The playoff format, devoid of back-to-backs, helps. And they want, need, to finish a first round quickly.
4. Are the Nets legit contenders?
Just a few weeks ago, some scouts completely discounted the Nets. Here’s some of those same guys:
“The Nets have improved and they feel they can beat anybody,” one scout said. “They are built for the playoffs and [Kevin] Garnett and [Paul] Pierce bring championship pedigree. But it’s going to fall to Deron Williams. He’s going to have to have some 25 [points] and 12 assists nights.”
One other scout pointed to the sidelines.
“Jason Kidd has become very good at finding a mismatch and working it to death. He really has grown as a coach,” that scout said.
5. Win 50 one year, go home early the next
Two teams who seemed like playoff locks at season’s start, the Knicks and Nuggets, have very nice seats on the couch to watch the postseason. The Knicks won 54 last year and were the East’s second seed. The Nuggets won 57 last season and were third out West.
6. Is this the year Oklahoma City breaks through?
“Well, if it isn’t, what do you do in the offseason?” one Eastern exec asked. “The West is so good and durability is important. Can [Russell] Westbrook stay healthy throughout the whole playoffs? I just don’t know if they can take the Spurs.”
One Eastern assistant coach likes OKC. A lot.
“I think it’s their year,” the coach said. “They’re healthy for the most part. They’ve been together. I know San Antonio has been on a great run, but Oklahoma City is young enough, athletic enough, smart enough and been tested enough to beat the Spurs.”
7. Houston, you might be a problem
Houston has megastars in James Harden and Dwight Howard, a diverse offense that can shoot from deep and good role players in Chandler Parsons, Patrick Beverley and Jeremy Lin. Portland will be a tough first-round test, but the Rockets — with the way they shoot and spread the floor with Howard in the middle — are not a matchup anyone wants.
8. Is there a dark horse team?
At No. 4 in the East, don’t discount the Bulls. They will need to outlast the young, athletic guards of the Wizards. But if seeds hold, Chicago represents the upset special against Indiana. The Bulls play tough and unselfish, and have overcome injuries plus the trade of Luol Deng.
9. What’s with the Warriors?
Chaos. Two assistant coaches were bounced. David Lee and Andrew Bogut are hurt. The expectations were massive. The general consensus is if the Warriors exit in the first round, Mark Jackson gets fired. The Warriors also took a hit when they lost Jarrett Jack’s toughness to free agency.
“Guys like that are invaluable,” the Western Conference scout said. “Management types don’t get how important they are to your team.”
10. Should we like the Clippers?
Yes. But not too much.
“They’re good, have a great coach [Doc Rivers], but I don’t think they have enough pieces to beat a balanced team like San Antonio or the Thunder,” the Eastern assistant said. “They obviously have great pieces in Blake Griffin and [Chris] Paul, but I don’t think they have enough firepower.”