Sports

ALL SIGNS POINT TO ‘REVENGE’

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Four of the most successful Kentucky Derby betting systems in vogue point to a spectacular play in the 135th edition of the great classic at Churchill Downs this afternoon.

And if that is not enough to tout you on the horse, Jerry Bailey, the most successful jockey of the 21st century, selects him to win.

This is how it all shakes out:

System 1: One of the best and most profitable methods of finding the likely winner of the Derby is to zero in on the four horses with the highest Beyer figures in their last races.

This approach, since the Beyer speed figures were introduced in Daily Racing Form in 1993, has found the winner in 11 of the 16 years, tabbing such bombs as Charismatic at 31-1, War Emblem at 20-1 and Funny Cide at 12-1. They sport a handsome level stake profit.

The four horses with the highest last-race Beyers this afternoon are: Dunkirk 108 (revised dramatically upward from an original 100) Friesan Fire 104, I Want Revenge 103, Papa Clem and West Side Bernie both on 101.

System 2: Over the years, horses that go into the Derby with bullet workouts after their last race invariably run well at the Downs.

Here are some of the past winners sporting blacktype on their past performances: Giacomo went to Kentucky from California with two blacktype workouts and won at 50-1 in 2005. War Emblem won at 20-1, Funny Cide at 12-1, etc. The last seven winners of the Derby all went into the race off bullet workouts.

Qualifiers this year are: Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, I Want Revenge, Atomic Rain, Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile.

System 3: Horses that run the last three-eighths of their prep races in sharp time, say in 38 seconds or less, have a good win record in the Derby.

Just some of the winners: Giacomo, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Monarchos at 10-1, Real Quiet at 8-1, Thunder Gulch at 24-1, Go for Gin at 9-1.

This year, nearly every horse in the Derby (exceptions: Advice and Mine That Bird) came home in 38 seconds or less in their last races. But the five fastest three-eighths were posted by General Quarters 35.85, Hold Me Back 35.95, Chocolate Candy 36, Mr. Hot Stuff 36.30 and I Want Revenge 36.37.

System 4: Known as the Dual Qualifier system, it highlights horses that are weighted within 10 pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Scale and whose stamina breeding dosage index is no higher than 4.00

This method, roundly trashed by purists who themselves never picked Derby winners, spun off huge profits for years, but it has crashed with a thud in recent years because trainers no longer subject their juveniles to much racing, leaving them unweighted on the scale.

This year, however, there are a handful of qualifiers: Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile, West Side Bernie.

Study all four system lists for today’s Derby and only one horse will be found on all four, suggesting he might be a stickout. He is I Want Revenge.

And that’s the horse Bailey would choose to ride if he were still in the jockey business.

“I like the horse that won the Wood Memorial,” Bailey said. “I like him because he faced adversity in that race and he overcame it. In the Derby, nearly every horse will have to deal with adversity.

“Big Brown [last year’s winner] was an anomaly. He was so much better than the others. He could stay wide, lose ground and still win. Most horses don’t have that kind of edge.

“In this Derby, there are half a dozen horses closely matched. The horse that can make his own luck, overcome bad racing luck, has the best chance and that’s I Want Revenge.”

There’s only one problem with I Want Revenge. Listed as one of the favorites, his odds likely will be short.