You’re not going to get very far in the college football world, taking the Big 12 over the SEC on a consistent basis. Swimming in quicksand. Playing with fire. Flirting with danger. Insert your cliché here.
Look no further than last bowl season, the last time we spoke by the way. The Cotton? Ole Miss 47, Texas Tech 34. The BCS title game? Florida, 24, Oklahoma 14.
You get the point.
But there’s just something different about Opening Week, isn’t there? A home team — perhaps with higher expectations than its talent level justifies, or even a team that’s just flat-out not that good — can get “up” for a big opener, seize the national TV audience, and make a statement that it may not, in the end, be able to live up to.
Last year, for instance, UCLA, with a first-year coach in a tough conference, was headed nowhere, like its 4-8 record proved. But that didn’t stop Rick Neuheisel’s Bruins from shocking Tennessee, 27-24, on Labor Day at the Rose Bowl. Tennessee, as it turned out, had its own problems. But keep in mind, the Volunteers were seven-point favorites in that one.
Stay with Tennessee for a second. Opening Week, 2006. The Vols — steady and sure but not BCS-ready — welcomed a flash-and-dash Cal team to Knoxville. This was going to be the year for the Bears. In fact, Cal strutted into SEC Territory as a three-point favorite. Well, the oddsmakers missed. Tennessee 35, Cal 18.
Fast forward. Oklahoma State — with as much offense as its prime booster, T. Boone Pickens, has dollars — is No. 9 in the land. Some expect it to contend for the Big 12 title. Some expect it in the BCS mix. Others, present company included, think the Cowboys have more style than substance. And that will not get it done, later on, vs. Oklahoma and Texas.
But that’s later on. On Saturday, the Cowboys have their statement, first-inning at-bat. Georgia — sans Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno — enter Stillwater with simmered expectations. The No. 13 Bulldogs have talent, SEC talent, at that. But let’s face it: Even with those two aforementioned first-round picks, Georgia ended up in the Capital One Bowl. And now, they’re gone.
Oklahoma State, the floor is yours.
“It’s the highest we’ve been ranked preseason in a long time,” Cowboys coach Mike Gundy said. “There’s a lot of excitement. We have to make sure they understand the most important thing is to prepare to play.”
We think they’ll be ready . . . at least this week. Oklahoma State (-5½) is the pick.
TONIGHT
BOISE STATE (-3½) over Oregon: Home teams and Thursdays are like the old New Jersey motto: “Perfect Together.” Almost. The blue-turf Broncos could land back in the BCS.
SATURDAY
Navy (+21½) over OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes are notorious slow starters, and have to be looking ahead to USC.
PENN STATE (-27) over Akron: The Lions beat non-conference foes by an average of 43 last season.
Minnesota (-7) over SYRACUSE: Too much, too early for Doug Marrone and Greg Paulus.
Baylor (+2) over WAKE FOREST: The Deacons aren’t as fluid offensively as many think. The Bears could surprise.
NOTRE DAME (-14½) over Nevada: The Wolfpack can score, but can’t stop anyone, much less an improved Irish offense.
Illinois (-6½) over Missouri (in St. Louis): Juice Williams and Ron Zook have their day, now that Chase Daniel has left this rivalry.
Oklahoma (-22) over Brigham Young (in Arlington, Tex.): Sam Bradford begins the redemption tour. But look for the Sooners defense to score, as well.
Virginia Tech (+6½) over Alabama (in Atlanta): The Hokies can gain some much-needed ACC respect in a tight game.
CAL (-21) over Maryland: The line is begging you to take the Terps. The Bears grab revenge after losing in College Park last year.
WASHINGTON (+17½) over Louisiana State: Danger zone, but Jake Locker — when healthy — has been good to us.
SUNDAY
Ole Miss (-16½) over MEMPHIS: Rivalry game that should test the Rebels. But in the end, they have too much.
MONDAY
RUTGERS (-5½) over Cincinnati: The stadium is complete, a record crowd is expected, and it will be shown to all on national TV. A Scarlet statement, perhaps?
Miami (+6) over FLORIDA STATE: Both programs are stuck in neutral, but the Hurricanes’ defense can keep this under a touchdown.
OFF THE GRID
COLORADO (-10) over Colorado State: Year Three for Dan Hawkins should start with a cover, and end in a bowl.
NEBRASKA (-21) over Florida Atlantic: Howard Schnellenberger traditionally plays everyone on the roster, in games he cannot win.
Records: 2005-2008: 495-439-24 Overall, 102-86-3 Best Bets, 15-15-2 Off The Grid. Last year:
133-117-5, 28-22-1, 9-9-1.