Opinion

SILVER’S SUBTLETY

IF the battle over mayoral control were a Sherlock Holmes tale, it would be ti tled, “The Speaker That Didn’t Obstruct.”

In a meeting with his conference Tuesday night, Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver offered vigorous support for renewing Mayor Bloomberg’s control of the public-school system.

It’s not the first time Silver has sided with Bloomberg in a struggle with Albany. Last year, the speaker said he favored congestion pricing. Problem was, he didn’t move an inch to get it passed. This time — to the surprise of his conference — Silver is cracking his whip.

In recent weeks, Silver has met privately with his members to talk about mayoral control. Democrats who want to strip away the mayor’s power over the crucial Panel for Educational Policy expected to find a receptive audience in Silver, who has long been critical of Bloomberg’s schools management. They were wrong.

That’s not to say Bloomberg and Silver don’t have differences on the issue. Silver supports giving school superintendents more muscle to oversee principals and settle parents’ complaints, but they’d still be under the schools chancellor’s thumb. The speaker also wants an independent body to crunch test-score and graduation-rate data, and he favors a more regulated procurement policy.

Bloomberg isn’t thrilled about these ideas and won’t rest easy until he reads the fine print of the bill, but Silver clearly doesn’t want to remove the mayor’s basic authority.

“Have we really taken power away from him? No. The mayor has a lot of smart lawyers who will find a way to ignore it,” says a Democratic assemblyman who asked not to be named, referring to the new policy on superintendents.

In an out-of-character move, Silver conceded ground at an early stage in the negotiations — even at the risk of angering his members. Says one Democratic assemblyman: “Most members I talk to want to limit the mayor’s control of the panel.” Says another: “It’s ultimately going to be a fight within the conference.”

Let’s assume for a moment that Silver’s decision to back Bloomberg isn’t based on policy merits. What’s really going on?

Some say that because of Gov. Paterson’s ineffectiveness, Silver has been acting as the state’s de facto governor — and this has led him to adopt a less combative and more statesman-like style. Others say Bloomberg has figured out how to deal with Shelly.

The New York Observer, which has advanced the latter view, credited Silver’s cooperation to Bloomberg’s new “diplomatic, deal-prone and political approach.”

Some are also saying Silver is simply going along with the United Federation of Teachers — which, the thinking goes, doesn’t want any issues interfering with its upcoming New York City contract negotiations.

This idea is plausible (although it’s puzzling why the UFT a month ago was lobbying aggressively to gut mayoral control). But it doesn’t tell the whole story.

The Bloomberg-Silver rapprochement has less to do with style and tactics and more to do with Albany’s changing winds.

Silver is the capital’s king, but he knows that he may soon be dethroned. With Paterson weak and Republicans lacking a viable candidate, Silver and other Democrats are preparing for the reign of Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and a radical shift in the balance of power.

Recent history suggests that Cuomo is on a collision course with Silver. The attorney general, whose pension-fund probe is creeping uncomfortably close to Silver, isn’t going out of his way to reassure the speaker otherwise.

When George Pataki was elected governor in 1994, he helped topple the sitting leader of the Republican-led Senate, who had feuded with Pataki. He elevated Joseph Bruno, then a close Pataki ally. Silver was closest to Bloomberg during the latter’s bitterest disputes with Pataki.

One of the first things Eliot Spitzer did as governor was to pick a fight with Silver over choosing a comptroller. Spitzer was urged by allies to try to oust Silver, but the governor never pulled the trigger. Only when his popularity fell — and he had nowhere else to turn in Albany — did Spitzer form an alliance with the speaker.

Silver realizes that crossing Bloomberg on mayoral control would convince the mayor that he has nothing to lose by declaring an all-out war on the speaker. Bloomberg contained his anger after losing on congestion pricing, but gaining control over the public-school system is Bloomberg’s signature accomplishment. Losing it would be unforgivable.

With a power struggle looming, it makes sense for Silver to limit his exposure. Shoring up his relationship with Bloomberg could insure against a threat to his strength — if not his leadership.

Bloomberg isn’t interested in unraveling the mystery of Silver. He just wants to keep control of the schools. It may not be the beginning of a beautiful friendship, but for the mayor’s purposes it’s good enough.

jacob.gershman@gmail.com