If it isn’t already inevitable, an expected NHL defeat in the Ilya Kovalchuk contract case would likely increase the chances of a third lockout in 2012-13.
The mind-boggling, endurance-testing ninth chapter of the Kovalchuk Saga opens in Boston today, and it certainly won’t be the final one, whichever way the arbitrator rules.
The NHL Players Association is appealing the league’s rejection of Kovalchuk’s $102 million, 17-year contract with the Devils. It is believed there has been nothing close to an arbitration-avoiding alteration of the deal.
If, as expected, arbitrator Richard Bloch rules in favor of Kovalchuk, perhaps as late as Monday, his contract will be immediately validated. But then the Devils will have to find a way to shed some $5-6 million in salary-cap liability by season’s start to get under the $59.4 million lid and still have wiggle room for injuries.
Vital players would have to go, perhaps among Bryce Salvador, Colin White and Dainius Zubrus, either by trade or waiver/demotion.
Most important, such a verdict would validate heavily front-loaded contracts that the NHL claim circumvent the CBA, and become a major NHL demand for the next pact.
Should Bloch back the NHL and find that the contract is indeed an end-run around the CBA, Kovalchuk would again become an unrestricted free agent, and teams like the Kings and Rangers, as well as the Devils, would again be able to bid for his services in a more straight-forward salary arrangement.
Although it appears unlikely, the NHL then also would have the option of initiating its own punitive action against Kovalchuk and the Devils. A circumvention ruling off a league-filed action could cost the Devils $1.5 million in fines, with a similar amount deducted from their cap limit. Kovalchuk himself could be liable to a fine of $250,000-$1 million.
The saga began at New Year’s when the Thrashers offered their 2001 first-overall draft pick $101 million over 12 years or $70 million over seven years, and Kovalchuk rejected those deals. Then Atlanta opened the bidding for the two-time 52-goal scorer. The third chapter saw the auction won by the Devils Feb. 4, who also acquired Anssi Salmela and a swap of seconds for Johnny Oduya, Niclas Bergfors, prospect Patrice Cormier and a first-round pick.
Then came his 27-point, 27-game stint, and team-leading six-point playoff performance, followed by the Devils’ last moment to sign him before July 1 free agency. The sixth chapter was Kovalchuk’s chance to sign anywhere, deciding on New Jersey, then deciding to try Los Angeles again before finally taking the Devils’ landmark offer.
That signing was promptly followed by the league’s July 25 rejection of the deal on grounds of CBA circumvention and in chapter eight, the Players’ Association’s filing of its grievance, requiring today’s delayed hearing.
Kovalchuk is expected to attend the hearing. GM Lou Lamoriello, agent Jay Grossman, Devils and former NHL cap expert Steve Pellegrini, owner Jeff Vanderbeek, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman and vice commissioner Bill Daly are among possible witnesses. The Kings might be called upon for their version of events.