Jayson Werth (Getty Images)
The Yankees likely will spend the most money this offseason between luring Cliff Lee and retaining their own iconic players in Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and, probably, Andy Pettitte.
But that is just the Yankees being the Yankees. The fact that so many other AL teams appear ready to muscle up financially is what heightens intrigue this offseason.
The Red Sox, Angels and Tigers are showing a willingness to spend big for at least one bat each this offseason; and the White Sox, A’s and Orioles also are serious players to do the same. The Rangers have an infusion of new ownership dollars which makes them — at the least — nuisances to the Yankees in the Lee sweepstakes and — at the most — major Hot Stove players.
The NL, meanwhile, is closer to dormant than dominant this winter. The traditional big-market teams such as the Mets, Cubs, Phillies and Dodgers all will have difficulty adding anything significant because of payroll restrictions; and the Cardinals have to reserve to re-sign Albert Pujols. The NL teams currently out front looking to spend are the Pirates and Nationals, but as perennial losers they are not easy sells.
So with the GM Meetings opening tomorrow in Orlando, what does this mean? It feels as if there is a greater willingness by more different teams to spend this offseason, which is good for this crop of free agents. But there also is expected to be a thriving trade market with players such as Kansas City’s Zack Greinke, Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder, San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez, Arizona’s Mark Reynolds and perhaps even enigmatic center fielders in the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp and Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton.
Here are some thoughts on how this may play out:
CLIFF LEE
The Yankees are the solid favorites, but the Rangers are going to bid strongly. The Nationals could be a wild card. Remember that Washington actually had the highest total-dollar bid for Mark Teixeira after the 2008 season, and Teixeira — as a Scott Boras client — was expected to go for the last buck. He went to the Yankees for a lot, but also the certainty of contention.
Lee is viewed as even more of a last-dollar mercenary. Still, it would be hard after all he has experienced in October the past few years to turn down the Yankees stage — and probably five years at $125 million.
CARL CRAWFORD
“What a great position to be in if you are Crawford,” said an AL personnel man, “Three teams with money will definitely be bidding on him.”
Those would be the Red Sox, Angels and Tigers. Don’t be surprised if this got up in the eight-year, $144 million range with the Angels prevailing. In fact, after failing to make the playoffs last year, the Angels are viewed as powerhouse shoppers this offseason.
An AL executive said, “I would bet they end up with [closer] Rafael Soriano, too.” Another personnel man said he would not be surprised if the Angels left the offseason having purchased Crawford, Soriano and Adrian Beltre while conceding, “Beltre does not fit [manager] Mike Scioscia’s style, but the Angels really need to solve third base.”
JAYSON WERTH
With his new agent, Boras, Werth will look to match what Boras got for Matt Holliday last year (seven years, $120 million) and not what Jason Bay received from the Mets (four years, $66 million). It probably will wind up in the middle, something like five years at $90 million, with the Red Sox and Tigers pushing hard.
With more than
$52 million coming off the payroll from expiring pacts for Magglio Ordonez, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman, the Tigers were viewed by several executives as potentially trying to land two free-agent bats from among Crawford, Werth, Adam Dunn and Victor Martinez.
As one of those executives said, “Detroit will be the team that goes the extra year to get someone like Dunn or, don’t forget, the Tigers in the past have saved Boras by going further with guys like Pudge [Ivan Rodriguez] and Magglio, so maybe they go the sixth year for Werth.”
Dunn ends up in the three-year, $42 million range with the Tigers, White Sox or Cubs. The Cubs would spend some money to get lefty power. Boston is the favorite for Werth, who plays left field this year then goes to his natural right field when J.D. Drew leaves after the season. Martinez goes for four years around $60 million, which is probably too rich for Boston, but acceptable to the Tigers, Orioles or Rangers.
ZACK GREINKE
The fall-off from Lee to the next-best free-agent starter (Carl Pavano? Jorge De La Rosa?) is so significant that this might be the right time for the Royals to maximize Greinke’s value. He is a free agent after the 2012 season, and the best of Kansas City’s now-admired system is position players (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Wil Myers) who should just be becoming regulars when Greinke can leave. So isn’t it in the Royals’ best interest to get two or three pitching prospects now who will graduate at the same time as the positional group?
Well, it is complicated. Greinke has a no-trade clause to 15 teams and clearly does not want to go to a major northeast club such as the Yankees or Red Sox, which hurts the bidding. Also, the Royals don’t want to disenchant their fans further by trading their best player. An NL executive said the Royals “are starting from a position of not wanting to trade [Greinke], and when you start there, it is hard to get anywhere.”
The team to watch is the Rangers, particularly if Lee goes to the Yankees.
ADRIAN GONZALEZ
He is clearly on the block now that Padres GM Jed Hoyer has admitted publicly there is no way they can sign him when he becomes a free agent after the 2011 campaign. But after contending until the last day of 2010, the Padres might find it difficult to trade their best player (and a San Diego area native) in the offseason. He may be more likely to go in July.
PRINCE FIELDER
There is a sense Milwaukee will move Fielder and try to get as much pitching as possible. Fielder is a Boras client a year from free agency, so the Brewers know they aren’t keeping him and that they will not get a boatload for him.
But say, for example, the White Sox do not land a DH in free agency could they do something like trade Gavin Floyd for Fielder, especially because Chicago plans to move impressive rookie Chris Sale from the pen into its 2011 rotation?
MARK REYNOLDS
New Arizona GM Kevin Towers has said he wants to cut down the team’s strikeouts. Well no better place to start than the human K. Reynolds has averaged 213 strikeouts over the last three years. Nevertheless, he has 104 homers in the same span, 17 more than Werth and ninth overall in the majors. So a team craving righty power such as Atlanta could be interested, or maybe the Angels if they don’t land Beltre.
joel.sherman@nypost.com