You can call it a predictable surprise. Rest assured, there will be a running back who will burst onto the fantasy scene over the final weeks of the season. This back will have provided little or no impact during most of the season, yet could change the fortunes of your fantasy playoffs.
The only surprise will be, which back is it? Last season, Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart came alive after an injury to DeAngelo Williams. Browns running back Jerome Harrison also provided a big boost. In years past, we have seen similar surges by Michael Turner while in San Diego, Houston running back Steve Slaton during his rookie season, and others.
This season, the Tracker likes the future playoff prospects of Saints running back Pierre Thomas — if you can get by without him this week vs. the Rams, his first action since a Week 3
ankle injury. Chris Ivory has been erratic filling in for Thomas and backfield mate Reggie Bush. We think it will take a week for Thomas to work his way back into the offense, so this week he is not a strong fantasy play. But, especially considering his role in the passing game, we envision a solid output in the weeks to follow, even against some strong competition in Weeks 15-17 — at Ravens, at Falcons, vs. Buccaneers.
If you have been winging it since Frank Gore was hurt, or are worried about the demotion of Giants Ahmad Bradshaw to No. 2 back, or don’t like the matchups for Chargers Mike Tolbert or the time-share dilemma of Cowboys Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, this could be a solution.
Heading into this week, Thomas was available in about 35 percent of leagues. If you can grab him, do so. If you have stashed him on the bench this long, your payoff might be near.
dloftis@nypost.com
Big weeks
LaGarrette Blount, RB
Buccaneers, at Redskins
Washington’s defense can’t stop anybody, much less a gritty, bowling-ball back such as Blount. We anticipate a monster day.
Brandon Jackson, RB
Packers, at Lions
Our dislike for the Lions run defense outweighs our lack of confidence in the Packers back. Detroit has surrendered 15 rushing TDs (only the Broncos have yielded more).
Atlanta, DEF
Falcons, at Panthers
The Panthers have given up four defensive TDs in their past five games.
Johnny Knox, WR
Bears, vs. Patriots
The Patriots have had trouble stopping opponents through the air. Though we don’t have confidence in Bears QB Jay Cutler, who always seems one week away from his next four-interception game, he should rack up some yards, and Knox is his best target.
Derrick Mason, WR
Ravens, at Texans
The Texans haven’t stopped anyone, outside of the Rusty Smith-led Titans. Expect a big game from Mason, who ripped his team this week for its recent offensive struggles.
Small weeks
Dwayne Bowe, WR
Chiefs, at Chargers
San Diego sports the No. 1 pass defense, and the Chiefs likely will be without QB Matt Cassel.
Calvin Johnson, WR
Lions, vs. Packers
Green Bay gas given up just 11 passing TDs vs. 16 INTs. Third-string Lions QB Drew Stanton will start again, which is more bad news for Megatron.
Matt Ryan, QB
Falcons, at Panthers
Who needs to throw when you can run all over an inferior opponent. Plus, the Cats pass defense has been respectable (15-15 TD-INT ratio). This game will belong to Michael Turner.
Cedric Benson, RB
Bengals, at Steelers
It’s tough sledding for any back vs. the stingy Steelers run defense, which has allowed just 747 rushing yards all the season — 272 less than the next-best team.
Mike Tolbert, RB
Chargers, vs. Chiefs
Kansas City has given up just six rushing TDs this year, but the pass defense has yielded 18 TDs to nine INTs. San Diego likes to throw, and the matchup dictates they play to their strength, which will limit Tolbert’s opportunties.