Paris
Syrian opposition leaders will gather here Monday to appoint an interim prime minister and form a coalition government in exile — paving the way for a formal request to the international community to set up safe havens to protect Syria’s civil population from more massacres by President Bashar al-Assad’s forces.
The opposition is especially concerned that Assad might use chemical weapons to terrorize his opponents into submission. Last month, pro-Assad forces used nonlethal chemicals against civilians in the Al-Bayyda district of Homs, paralyzing victims for several hours. Opposition sources claim that this was a test to estimate international reaction to the use of lethal chemical weapons.
Several countries, including the United States, are already studying the implications on the ground of setting up safe havens. A team of US logistics experts have reportedly arrived in a mountainous segment of the Lebanese frontier with Syria “to assess the lay of the land,” opposition sources tell me.
But America is expected to limit any participation to intelligence and technical support. Under President Obama’s “leading from behind” doctrine, the United States prefers to let the European Union nations and regional allies, notably Turkey and Jordan, carry much of the burden.
Syria’s neighors — Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq — are already pressured by massive influxes of Syrian refugees — who could soon total 1.2 million across the four countries.
Setting up safe havens inside Syria could slow down the influx and prevent a humanitarian tragedy. But safe havens need to be defended by force, including air cover and even boots on the ground.
Yet so far even France, the opposition’s most vocal supporter, has shied away from committing itself to military intervention. British Foreign Secretary William Hague has said that the “military option” should remain on the table but sounds far from enthusiastic about the prospect of setting up safe havens and defending them by force.
The meeting of opposition leaders is also expected to deal with several other issues.
The first is an accord over the extent of a future de-Ba’athification program to purge the Syrian government and armed forces of elements loyal to Assad. Massive de-Ba’athification in Iraq after Saddam Hussein’s overthrow created a great deal of tension among the Sunni minority most affected by it. In Syria, the Nusayris (also known as Alawites), a heterodox sect enjoying the lion’s share of political power, would be affected.
Some opposition groups want total de-Ba’athification; others insist that only those involved in criminal activities should be purged. As a sign of goodwill to those Ba’athists who’ve broken with Assad or are preparing to do so, the opposition might ask Riad Hijab to head the coalition government as prime minister. Until he switched sides last fall, Hijab held the post under Assad.
Hijab’s appointment could reassure part of the Syrian bureaucratic and military elites that the post-Assad regime would not launch a witch-hunt against them. Hijab has suggested setting up a “truth and reconciliation” process to prevent the collapse of state structures that could turn Syria into an ungoverned territory.
But some key opposition figures dismiss Hijab as “a scion of the criminal regime” and suggest a number of hitherto nonpolitical intellectuals and judges as potential candidates for the premiership.
With Assad unwilling or unable to step aside, it’s increasingly clear that diplomatic efforts can no longer solve the Syrian crisis. This is why Lakhdar Brahimi, the Algerian diplomat who serves as the special UN emissary to Syria, is expected to resign next month. That would force UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to either return the issue to the Security Council or name a new “peace envoy.”
For their part, Russia and Iran are preparing for a bit of saber-rattling in the form of naval exercises in Syrian waters next week.
In the meantime, in Syria the massacre continues.