Despite the proliferation of how-to books on 21st-century parenting, none tells us how to deal with a nuclear-armed adolescent threatening the neighbors with destruction. And that description puts a good face on North Korea’s misbehavior.
This month alone, Pyongyang’s young new leader, Kim Jong Un, threatened a nuclear attack on the United States, released a crude video of a burning US city and voided the armistice that suspended Korean-War hostilities.
Well, the North Korean regime can’t reach America with nukes (at least, not yet). And a new war on the Korean peninsula would destroy North Korea. So why’s the new kid on the block making crazy threats?
The immediate trigger is the beginning of the annual US-South Korean military exercises — which Kim has called an “act of war.” No matter that these peaceful exercises have been held for decades.
A greater cause is North Korea’s desperate plight — economically, politically and, thanks to decades of malnutrition, even physically. The average North Korean is not only far poorer than his South Korean counterpart, but shorter and, reportedly, of lower IQ. The world is leaving North Korea behind.
In response to Kim’s threat to nuke America on the eve of a UN Security Council meeting on tightened sanctions against his regime, even China, North Korea’s key ally, went along with tougher restrictions. The bad news is that when Beijing’s worried, we should be downright alarmed.
The latest rhetoric may be painting Pyongyang into a corner. There is a growing chance of nuclear use. And we still have almost 30,000 troops in South Korea, plus civilian employees and a small contingent of military dependents, who’d all be in the kill zone. And, of course, we’re bound by treaty to defend South Korea.
Like others, I’ve dismissed past North Korean threats as pathetic pleas for attention. But things have begun to feel different.
My greatest concern is that Kim Jong Un, a pampered, sheltered young man, may not have a grip on reality. He may not know how hollow his own regime has become or how limited his strategic reach truly is.
It’s all too possible that yes-man generals, concerned for their own privileges, may have exaggerated North Korea’s military and nuclear capabilities to their young leader. He may actually believe he could strike America — and that his large-but-decrepit army is invulnerable.
Pyongyang could make precisely the same miscalculation about the American will to fight as the Japanese did in 1941.
Here’s a truly frightening scenario: An out-of-touch-with-reality leader surrounded by sycophants hiding strategic weakness; a regime dying of economic and ideological cancer; a growing nuclear arsenal; a huge, if antiquated army (about 1 million active troops, with perhaps 8 million reserves); an alluringly wealthy neighbor to the south — and the sense that the United States is in retreat around the world.
And there’s one more critical factor: Out of pride, the South Koreans rebuilt their ruined capital on the same site after the war. Now Seoul, one of East Asia’s greatest cities, is a hostage: It’s within range of even conventional North Korean weapons. Pyongyang views that as its trump card.
We must hope for peace, but it’s time to think the unthinkable. What if war breaks out? And what if, faced with battlefield losses, the North Koreans nuke Seoul? Or US bases?
Here’s the world-changing question: Would President Obama have the guts to respond in kind? Could our no-nukes president bring himself to do what would be absolutely essential, to punish nuclear use with nuclear devastation?
If not, the nuclear genie truly would be out of the bottle. If states believe they can use nukes with impunity, nuclear war would become the new normal — the opposite of what Obama hopes to achieve.
It’s a confounding world, Mr. President.
In the meantime, we should respond to North Korean threats by offering nuclear weapons to South Korea. Obama won’t do that, either.
Throughout history, more wars have been ignited by miscalculation than policy. This time, the miscalculations may be on both sides.
Ralph Peters is a retired US Army officer and Fox News’ strategic analyst.