College Football

Pigskin Profit: Pick Jayhawks, not chalk

There is a simple reason why chalk receives the most action: People don’t want to feel stupid. And if you have gone against Baylor this season, the Bears have made you feel stupid.

The Bears lead the nation with more than 714 yards and nearly 65 points per game, giving them a 5-1 record against the spread. So if you want to back Baylor now, you really have to pay.

If you go against the Bears, you may kick yourself for going against what may become the most prolific offense in college football history, but if you take Baylor, and the Bears fail to cover, it’s the players’ fault for underachieving, not yours for making a stupid pick.

Saturday is difficult, knowing Baylor will annihilate Kansas, but the Bears’ only road game this season, and only blown cover, came against another underwhelming team, at Kansas State, where they left with a 10-point win.

Playing in Lawrence, expect Kansas (+34½) to click its cleats three times and remind Baylor there’s no place like home.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (-10) over Kentucky: Both teams were off last weekend, so the normally enticing Thursday night ’dog is not quite as appealing without the short week.

Wake Forest (+23) over MIAMI: The sanctions are in, the Hurricanes are bowl eligible and they can keep their unlikely BCS dream alive one week longer. With Miami’s nationally televised prime-time showdown of undefeateds at Tallahassee looming, Wake Forest benefits.

Houston (+7) over RUTGERS: The Cougars have never lost a game in the history of the AAC.

Vanderbilt (+17¹/₂) over TEXAS A&M: Johnny Manziel may be out of a sling, but the possibility of re-injury or his play being affected by his shoulder looms large. Besides, this Aggies defense grows more atrocious by the week.

ALABAMA (-28½) over Tennessee: What the Crimson Tide are doing on defense might be more impressive than the track meets being run at Baylor and Oregon. Outside of the Texas A&M win, Alabama’s top-ranked defense has allowed an average of 4.3 points in its other six games, which include three conference games and two meetings with ranked opponents. The defending champs are just getting better.

FLORIDA STATE (-32) over North Carolina State: Even after college football’s most impressive win of the season, Florida State will need to continue its string of slaughters as the season-long battle with Oregon for the No. 2 spot in the BCS standings intensifies.

Clemson (-14) over MARYLAND: The Terps have a great chance to cover if star receiver Stefon Diggs has one of his electrifying performances. What? He broke his right fibula last week? Well, there’s still Deon Long, who has emerged as a sensational second option in the passing game. Seriously? He broke his right fibula, and tibia, too? In the same game? So, a Maryland offense that has struggled to make plays the past three weeks loses its top two playmakers, while Clemson comes to College Park after one of the most embarrassing losses in school history. Expect what would happen if a Tiger actually fought a Terrapin.

OKLAHOMA (-6¹/₂) over Texas Tech: The Sooners can only be shaken by their loss to Texas for so long. Their first game back home is the remedy.

ILLINOIS (+10½) over Michigan State: The Illini’s awful defense will be spared by an embarrassing Spartans offense.

AIR FORCE (+20) over Notre Dame: Even with Tommy Rees, the Irish’s 85th-ranked offense is just too unreliable to lay this many points. Support the troops.

Ucla (+23) over OREGON: The Ducks have even more admirers than Baylor, and rightfully so, but the infatuation doesn’t justify laying nearly four touchdowns against an offense averaging nearly 40 points per game.

MISSOURI (-3) over South Carolina: At some point, the Tigers will begin to get some respect. And at some point, the country will realize the Gamecocks are overrated. Saturday sounds about right.

Penn State (+14½) over OHIO STATE: After Penn State’s win over Michigan and a week off, wide receiver Allen Robinson is rested and due for another big game.

OREGON STATE (+4) over Stanford: Marcus Mariota isn’t the only Heisman candidate in the state where Faber College was born. Quarterback Sean Mannion leads the nation’s highest-ranked passing offense, with 29 touchdowns and three interceptions, and has taken the Beavers to six straight wins following a loss to FCS’ Eastern Washington that made it look as if Oregon State’s chances of a successful season were over. But nothing was over. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!

BEST BETS: Vanderbilt, Clemson, Penn State

Record: 34-39-2

Best Bets record: 6-9