The Lions have lost nine Thanksgiving games in a row and 11 of their last 12. Those are damning numbers, but they come with some extenuating circumstances that suggest other factors than simply this team can’t win on this holiday.
1. The Lions have been a bad team for the past dozen years, with 11 losing seasons, including 10 with double-digit losses.
2. Because the Lions have been unwatchable, the networks have needed good opponents with big-time quarterbacks to play them in this showcase game. Thus, they have had many Turkey Day losses to the likes of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers in this era.
This time, Detroit has a better record and a better quarterback than the Packers do. With the exception of their 22-9 loss at Lambeau Field in Week 5, when Green Bay was closer to full strength, the Lions have scored 21 points or more in every game.
The pick: Lions -6.
Raiders (+9¹/₂) over COWBOYS: Dallas is coming off a major emotional win against the Giants with little time to regroup. Raiders can run the ball, and Cowboys gave up 202 rushing yards to Big Blue.
RAVENS (-3) over Steelers: The last four Ravens-Steelers games, and eight of the last 10, have been decided by exactly three points. But one other stat to consider: Since the third (night) Thanksgiving game was added in 2006, the home team is 6-1 with six covers (only loss was Jets in the buttfumble game in 2012).
SUNDAY
JETS (-1¹/₂) over Dolphins: Good matchup for Jets as Dolphins rank 26th stopping the run, meaning better situations for Geno Smith to help rebuild his confidence. With Daniel Thomas out, Miami shouldn’t be able to run a lick on the Jets, who are No. 1 in that department.
Giants (-1) over REDSKINS: Initially thought the Giants would have a hard time bouncing back from such a devastating loss to Dallas which all but ended their playoff hopes. But they are better than the Redskins, and not by a little.
COLTS (-4¹/₂) over Titans: The Colts have two three-point wins and two losses by a combined 59 points in the last four weeks. Beat Titans 30-27 just two weeks ago in Nashville. Dominated that game to the tune of 30-6 between a 14-0 early deficit and a score with 1:54 to go. Colts need a good showing here in big way.
Jaguars (+7) over BROWNS: Jaguars have won last two and covered last three on the road. Don’t feel like giving a full touchdown with a Browns team that’s lost five of last six.
PANTHERS (-8¹/₂) over Buccaneers: Buccaneers are on a roll, going 3-1 with four covers since a 31-13 home loss to the Panthers in Week 8. Very tough road spot for rookie Mike Glennon, and Bucs may be without Revis.
VIKINGS (-1) over Bears: Chicago won the first meeting 31-30 at Soldier Field, but Bears have lost five of past eight. They were exposed on a dome carpet by the speedy Rams last week and could have more trouble against a Vikings team that has averaged about 27 points per game in its last five.
Cardinals (+3¹/₂) over EAGLES: Not sure if one win against the awful Redskins can erase all of the doubts lingering from the Eagles’ previous 10-game home losing streak. Carson Palmer is hitting stride with Cards, who have won four in a row.
Patriots (-7¹/₂) over TEXANS: Surprised this spread’s so low, given what Brady just did to the Broncos and the fact the Texans have lost nine in a row.
Falcons (+3¹/₂) over Bills (in Toronto): Bills are 1-4 in home games in Toronto including a 50-17 loss to Seattle last year. If they are going to move a game a year, it should be an early season one. Instead, they are playing a dome team in a dome instead of outdoors in December. That’s dumb.
49ERS (-9) over Rams: Rams are on a nice run but the 49ers’ last six wins are all by double digits, with an average margin of 21. They won first meeting 35-11 in St. Louis in Week 5.
Broncos (-4) over CHIEFS: Hard to pick this game this early in the week with key injuries on both sides to be factored. But you have to expect the Broncos will be stoked after the colossal collapse in Foxborough, and KC’s defense would be in trouble if Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are out or hindered.
CHARGERS (-1) over Bengals: Good game and tough call. Philip Rivers and Danny Woodhead seem to have a little magic working late in the season, and the Bengals are 2-4 on the road.
MONDAY NIGHT
SEAHAWKS (-6) over Saints: Big head start to give Drew Brees, but it will be low 30s with a chance of rain, and Hawks will be going for the kill shot (if not the official clincher) for top seed in the NFC, which may be a ticket to the Super Bowl.
BEST BETS: Giants, Jets, Patriots
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Giants
(Locks 3-8-1)
LAST WEEK: 8-6 overall, 2-1 Best Bets