So you are a Mets fan, happy for every morsel of good news, delighted at the prospect of welcoming Curtis Granderson across town for four years and $60 million, and never have you been more convinced of the healing powers of a good plate of salmon.
So you are cruising the Internet, feeling damned good about things (and, come on, be honest, feeling extra delighted since on the same day Granderson said “hello” to Flushing, Robinson Cano said “good-bye” to The Bronx), and you stop by the Grandy Man’s bio page on baseball-reference.com. Nothing — nothing — can darken your day, even as the skies darken and the clouds open on a perfectly miserable December day…
Until …
Until …
Until …
You take a glance at the “Similarity Scores” section, an algorithm which takes every player who has ever played Major League Baseball and crunches numbers and ages and every conceivable thing. Your eye probably isn’t drawn to the listing of similar-age players, where No. 1 is Ron Gant, who was a fine player for the Braves, Reds and Cardinals, among others (even if he never hit higher than .262 starting with his age-33 season, which Granderson will arrive at this year).
No, your eyes fix on the other list, the one that compares whole careers. And it doesn’t much matter to you that among those top-10 comps are some terrific players: Jose Bautista, Jayson Werth, Wally Post, Jesse Barfield. No. There is only one name on the list that captures you and, well, it so happens it’s the No. 1 name on the list. The No. 1 comp to Curtis Granderson.
And the name is Jason Bay.
We will allow you sufficient time here to hyperventilate, to take several deep breaths, to maybe pour yourself a refreshing glass of ice water (or something stronger, if necessary). OK? We good?
Now the good news:
For the Mets, prosperous times always have been preceded by halting, and extended, tours of the dark side. That’s always, as in every single time. And while much of the good times have come because of an influx of talented kids — Seaver and Koosman, Strawberry and Gooden, Wright and Reyes — there always has been a harbinger, an acquisition that signaled good times were coming before they ever actually arrived.
Once upon a time that player was Jerry Grote, acquired in a steal from Houston in 1965, an All-Star in 1968, and the man every pitcher of the era credits with making them all at least 40 percent better — and that includes Seaver. In 1983, it was Keith Hernandez, a reluctant Met at first but maybe the most important import ever, a one-man revolution who taught a moribund team how to win.
Mike Piazza was next, a sign in the spring of 1998 the Mets were tired of being perceived as paper tigers (funny how little things change in 15 years), who helped halt the 1990s miseries and delivered the team to a World Series in his second full season in Queens. And in 2005 it was Pedro Martinez, whose signing mere weeks after helping the Red Sox win a first championship in 86 years signaled it was OK for bold-faced talent to play in Queens again.
Granderson fills an awful lot of the criteria for almost every one of those culture-altering players. Like Grote, he is serious-minded about his craft. Like Hernandez, he brings years of team success to a place that has known almost none of it in six long years. Like Piazza, he provides legitimate offensive punch to a lineup that’s so often been bereft in recent years. Like Martinez, his willingness to say “yes” to the Mets could well be interpreted as a sign by others that playing at Citi Field is no longer the baseball equivalent of witness protection.
All of that is fine. All of that confirms this was an important decision. The Mets are better Saturday morning than they were Thursday night.
But here is a key element:
For this to work, this has to be the first piece of a complete renaissance. Grote never wins a championship without Cleon Jones, Donn Clendenon, Tommie Agee. Hernandez’s impact is minimal without Gary Carter, Ray Knight and Ron Darling. Piazza needed wingmen, and had Edgardo Alfonzo, Al Leiter, John Olerud and later, Todd Zeile. And Martinez was nice, but Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Billy Wagner were even nicer, and more impactful.
It’s a positive step. And, look: Granderson is better than Jason Bay, so you start there. But you are a Mets fan, and so you are cautious by nature. Good. You should be. This is the first step. There need to be many, many more.